{"F": {"ts_code": "600645.SH", "name": "中源协和", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "医疗器械", "sw3": "体外诊断", "ind": "医疗器械", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19930504", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 18.62, "pe_ttm": 74.4024, "pb": 2.33, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 871320.8518, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [66.5, 69.6, 67.6, 69.1, 69.2, 69.8], "rev_series": [13.2, 15.4, 15.5, 15.9, 15.9, 14.5], "np_series": [-1.3, 1.6, 1.1, 1.1, 1.0, 1.1], "roe_series": [-3.8, 4.5, 3.2, 2.9, 2.8, 3.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 14.0, "np_ttm": 1.2, "ocf_ttm": 3.2, "fcf_ttm": 2.8, "fcf_yield": 3.2, "ocf_yield": 3.7, "gm_median": 69.2, "gm_std": 0.8, "gm_stab": 0.99, "gm_chg_2022": 1.1, "npm_median": 6.9, "roe_median": 3.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.7, "fix_assets": 5.1, "goodwill_ratio": 13.3, "pb_calc": 2.33, "capex_dep": 0.33, "interest_debt": 0.7, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 28.4, "debt_mv": 0.8, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -2.2, "np_cagr3": 0.2, "rev_yoy": -8.0, "np_yoy": 5.7, "np_vol": 92.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["检测试剂生产", 20.0], ["检测试剂", 20.0], ["细胞检测制备及存储", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 30.6, "ret_prev2_year": -4.8, "ret_ytd": -26.1, "ret_pivot": 4.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.0, "ret_60": 2.4, "ret_120": -37.1, "ret_250": -34.1, "mdd_250": -49.2, "vol_250": 43.8, "pos_52w": 56.5}, "S": {"duration": 84, "pricing": 78, "hard": 16, "bondness": 21}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 74.4 倍,估值里约 93% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 10%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 69.2%),硬资产占比 10%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.2%(经营现金流/市值 3.7%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 69.2%,稳定度 99%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.1 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 0.33 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 74.4 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -34%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / 2% / -37%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「医疗器械」140 家中位:PE 38.6 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 55.4% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 45%。", "中源协和:PE 比行业中位高 35.8倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 13.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 12.2个百分点。"]}}