{"F": {"ts_code": "600644.SH", "name": "乐山电力", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "电力", "sw3": "电能综合服务", "ind": "电力", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19930426", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.15, "pe_ttm": 237.1543, "pb": 2.5576, "dv_ttm": 0.1639, "total_mv": 529163.532, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.6, 23.3, 19.1, 16.3, 15.8, 15.5], "rev_series": [22.9, 25.7, 28.7, 29.9, 32.0, 34.0], "np_series": [1.0, 1.2, 0.7, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2], "roe_series": [6.7, 7.1, 4.0, 1.3, 1.2, 1.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 33.1, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 4.9, "fcf_ttm": 1.9, "fcf_yield": 3.6, "ocf_yield": 9.2, "gm_median": 16.3, "gm_std": 2.9, "gm_stab": 0.82, "gm_chg_2022": -6.5, "npm_median": 0.9, "roe_median": 1.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 60.3, "fix_assets": 26.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 2.56, "capex_dep": 1.61, "interest_debt": 6.7, "debt_ebitda": 3.0, "debt_ratio": 47.7, "debt_mv": 12.7, "payout": 36.8, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 5.7, "np_cagr3": -30.9, "rev_yoy": -5.5, "np_yoy": -12.7, "np_vol": 29.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["电力分部", 35.0], ["燃气分部", 7.0], ["自来水分部", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 59.5, "ret_prev2_year": -12.1, "ret_ytd": -6.0, "ret_pivot": 69.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -11.8, "ret_60": -6.5, "ret_120": -27.4, "ret_250": -28.4, "mdd_250": -43.9, "vol_250": 50.0, "pos_52w": 67.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 41, "hard": 96, "bondness": 37}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 237.2 倍、股息率 0.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 16.3%、固定资产占比 60%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 60%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 16.3%,稳定度 82%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.6%(经营现金流/市值 9.2%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.3%,稳定度 82%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 60%,资本开支/折旧 1.61 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 237.2 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -28%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 50%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -12% / -6% / -27%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电力」109 家中位:PE 27.8 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 22.5% / 固定资产占比 61% / 分红率 42%。", "乐山电力:PE 比行业中位高 209.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点。"]}}