{"F": {"ts_code": "600641.SH", "name": "先导基电", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "半导体材料", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19930407", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 29.64, "pe_ttm": 656.8352, "pb": 3.3368, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 2806510.5276, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [45.3, 56.2, 54.4, 47.0, 47.7, 19.7], "rev_series": [9.3, 8.8, 11.6, 9.6, 5.8, 18.5], "np_series": [3.2, 3.8, 4.2, 1.5, 1.1, -1.3], "roe_series": [4.9, 5.3, 5.3, 1.8, 1.3, -1.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 23.0, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": -19.9, "fcf_ttm": -22.0, "fcf_yield": -7.8, "ocf_yield": -7.1, "gm_median": 47.7, "gm_std": 13.2, "gm_stab": 0.72, "gm_chg_2022": 9.1, "npm_median": 8.7, "roe_median": 1.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.6, "fix_assets": 12.3, "goodwill_ratio": 2.4, "pb_calc": 3.34, "capex_dep": 3.99, "interest_debt": 20.4, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 32.0, "debt_mv": 7.3, "payout": 33.8, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 17.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 64.1, "np_yoy": 414.9, "np_vol": 86.4, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.2, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 158.8, "fwd_pe2": 94.6, "fwd_g1": 314.0, "fwd_g2": 68.0, "peg": 2.34, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["铋相关材料业务", 43.0], ["铋材料销售", 43.0], ["专用设备制造业务", 5.0], ["专用设备制造", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 21.0, "ret_prev2_year": -15.1, "ret_ytd": 68.0, "ret_pivot": 200.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.2, "ret_60": 2.5, "ret_120": 61.3, "ret_250": 95.4, "mdd_250": -51.5, "vol_250": 66.0, "pos_52w": 61.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 60, "hard": 15, "bondness": 18}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 656.8 倍,估值里约 99% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 10%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(3 篇研报)前瞻 PE 158.8 倍,次年 94.6 倍,PEG 2.34。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 10%,毛利率近 5 年中位 47.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -7.8%(经营现金流/市值 -7.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 47.7%,稳定度 72%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 9.1 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 3.99 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 656.8 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 95%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 66%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / 2% / 61%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "先导基电:PE 比行业中位高 575.3倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 12.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.8个百分点。"]}}