{"F": {"ts_code": "600640.SH", "name": "国脉文化", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "数字媒体", "sw3": "其他数字媒体", "ind": "数字媒体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19930407", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.21, "pe_ttm": 379.9797, "pb": 2.2573, "dv_ttm": 0.1606, "total_mv": 887329.0073, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [8.6, 4.3, 7.5, 13.9, 16.7, 17.8], "rev_series": [44.5, 46.1, 35.1, 23.8, 21.4, 18.2], "np_series": [0.1, -3.6, -2.0, 0.1, 0.2, 0.2], "roe_series": [0.2, -8.3, -4.9, 0.1, 0.4, 0.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 18.2, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 1.6, "fcf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_yield": 1.6, "ocf_yield": 1.8, "gm_median": 13.9, "gm_std": 5.3, "gm_stab": 0.62, "gm_chg_2022": -1.0, "npm_median": 0.5, "roe_median": 0.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.9, "fix_assets": 3.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.26, "capex_dep": 0.31, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 21.1, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 47.1, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -19.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 0.2, "np_yoy": 13.3, "np_vol": 1465.8, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["数字内容及数智应用", 25.0], ["权益运营及新消费", 24.0], ["数字权益运营", 24.0], ["酒店运营", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 5.3, "ret_prev2_year": 4.1, "ret_ytd": -10.6, "ret_pivot": 15.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.7, "ret_60": 6.8, "ret_120": -11.3, "ret_250": -14.9, "mdd_250": -37.1, "vol_250": 39.0, "pos_52w": 73.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 35, "hard": 11, "bondness": 38}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 380 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 21%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.8%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 7%,毛利率近 5 年中位 13.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.6%(经营现金流/市值 1.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.9%,稳定度 62%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 7%,资本开支/折旧 0.31 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 380.0 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -15%,最大回撤 -37%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 7% / -11%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「数字媒体」14 家中位:PE 85.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 44.0% / 固定资产占比 2% / 分红率 55%。", "国脉文化:PE 比行业中位高 294.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 30.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.5个百分点。"]}}