{"F": {"ts_code": "600638.SH", "name": "新黄浦", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "房地产", "sw2": "房地产开发", "sw3": "住宅开发", "ind": "房地产开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19930326", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.06, "pe_ttm": 19.1623, "pb": 0.7174, "dv_ttm": 0.6126, "total_mv": 340738.7808, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [32.8, 7.5, 9.4, 18.4, 20.7, 24.7], "rev_series": [11.9, 35.9, 43.2, 30.6, 29.2, 22.6], "np_series": [2.7, 1.1, 0.6, 0.6, 0.8, 0.7], "roe_series": [6.4, 2.5, 1.3, 1.4, 1.8, 1.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 21.4, "np_ttm": 1.8, "ocf_ttm": 16.9, "fcf_ttm": 15.3, "fcf_yield": 45.0, "ocf_yield": 49.7, "gm_median": 18.4, "gm_std": 6.6, "gm_stab": 0.64, "gm_chg_2022": -23.4, "npm_median": 4.1, "roe_median": 1.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 2.9, "fix_assets": 6.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.72, "capex_dep": 1.46, "interest_debt": 25.9, "debt_ebitda": 7.8, "debt_ratio": 77.5, "debt_mv": 76.1, "payout": 30.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -19.4, "np_cagr3": 6.2, "rev_yoy": -31.4, "np_yoy": 108.4, "np_vol": 34.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 74.0, "earn_yield": 5.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 39.0], ["合计特别调整", 14.0], ["房地产", 12.0], ["房产销售", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 28.0, "ret_prev2_year": -0.8, "ret_ytd": -21.4, "ret_pivot": 29.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.5, "ret_60": -1.7, "ret_120": -21.2, "ret_250": -19.0, "mdd_250": -41.8, "vol_250": 36.5, "pos_52w": 67.8}, "S": {"duration": 38, "pricing": 35, "hard": 5, "bondness": 49}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 19.2 倍、股息率 0.6%、毛利率近 5 年中位 18.4%、固定资产占比 3%、有息负债/EBITDA 7.8 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 3%,毛利率近 5 年中位 18.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 45.0%(经营现金流/市值 49.7%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.4%,稳定度 64%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -23.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 3%,资本开支/折旧 1.46 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 19.2 倍 粗算,约 74%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -19%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 36%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / -2% / -21%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「房地产开发」83 家中位:PE 26.0 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 21.1% / 固定资产占比 2% / 分红率 36%。", "新黄浦:PE 比行业中位低 6.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.9个百分点。"]}}