{"F": {"ts_code": "600623.SH", "name": "华谊集团", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学原料", "sw3": "煤化工", "ind": "化学原料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19921204", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.6, "pe_ttm": 32.7005, "pb": 0.8062, "dv_ttm": 1.2791, "total_mv": 1822762.088, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [7.9, 17.4, 8.8, 8.4, 7.2, 7.6], "rev_series": [281.3, 396.9, 385.1, 408.8, 446.5, 460.7], "np_series": [4.2, 29.7, 12.8, 9.1, 9.1, 5.5], "roe_series": [2.3, 14.8, 5.9, 4.1, 4.1, 2.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 465.5, "np_ttm": 5.6, "ocf_ttm": 69.2, "fcf_ttm": 44.8, "fcf_yield": 24.6, "ocf_yield": 38.0, "gm_median": 8.4, "gm_std": 3.8, "gm_stab": 0.55, "gm_chg_2022": 0.9, "npm_median": 3.3, "roe_median": 4.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 41.5, "fix_assets": 301.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 0.81, "capex_dep": 1.02, "interest_debt": 247.1, "debt_ebitda": 7.0, "debt_ratio": 57.1, "debt_mv": 135.5, "payout": 41.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 6.2, "np_cagr3": -24.3, "rev_yoy": 2.0, "np_yoy": 0.6, "np_vol": 254.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 85.0, "earn_yield": 3.1, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 14.7, "fwd_pe2": 14.0, "fwd_g1": 122.0, "fwd_g2": 5.0, "peg": 2.94, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 26.0], ["精细化工", 10.0], ["精细化工：丙烯及下游产品", 6.0], ["丙烯酸及酯", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 13.3, "ret_prev2_year": 11.5, "ret_ytd": 13.2, "ret_pivot": 58.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.5, "ret_60": 4.1, "ret_120": -25.2, "ret_250": 0.6, "mdd_250": -36.3, "vol_250": 44.0, "pos_52w": 72.3}, "S": {"duration": 56, "pricing": 32, "hard": 66, "bondness": 51}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 42%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 8.4%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.9 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 7.0 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 42%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 8.4%,稳定度 55%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 24.6%(经营现金流/市值 38.0%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 8.4%,稳定度 55%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 42%,资本开支/折旧 1.02 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 32.7 倍 粗算,约 85%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 1%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 4% / -25%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学原料」59 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 16.8% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 40%。", "华谊集团:PE 比行业中位低 3.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.9个百分点。"]}}