{"F": {"ts_code": "600621.SH", "name": "华鑫股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "非银金融", "sw2": "证券Ⅱ", "sw3": "证券Ⅲ", "ind": "证券Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19921202", "is_fin": true, "roles": {"fin": true, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.75, "pe_ttm": 17.9247, "pb": 1.5961, "dv_ttm": 1.3091, "total_mv": 1458736.5375, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [41.2, 31.8, 28.3, 49.0, 58.1, null], "rev_series": [1.5, 1.3, 1.1, 0.1, 0.1, 25.9], "np_series": [7.1, 4.9, 3.5, 4.0, 3.7, 6.4], "roe_series": [10.8, 7.0, 4.8, 5.2, 4.5, 7.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 28.5, "np_ttm": 8.1, "ocf_ttm": 70.1, "fcf_ttm": 69.0, "fcf_yield": 47.3, "ocf_yield": 48.0, "gm_median": 40.4, "gm_std": 12.2, "gm_stab": 0.7, "gm_chg_2022": -12.9, "npm_median": 382.1, "roe_median": 5.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.2, "fix_assets": 1.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 1.6, "capex_dep": 3.48, "interest_debt": 87.3, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 85.6, "debt_mv": 59.9, "payout": 30.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 190.6, "np_cagr3": 21.8, "rev_yoy": 22.1, "np_yoy": 79.5, "np_vol": 38.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 72.0, "earn_yield": 5.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 45.0], ["经纪业务", 19.0], ["证券投资业务", 8.0], ["其他业务", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": -6.9, "ret_prev2_year": 18.6, "ret_ytd": -8.9, "ret_pivot": 12.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.1, "ret_60": 16.0, "ret_120": -9.8, "ret_250": -22.3, "mdd_250": -35.7, "vol_250": 28.1, "pos_52w": 74.6}, "S": {"duration": 36, "pricing": null, "hard": null, "bondness": 22}, "label": "金融·利差生意", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["华鑫股份 是证券Ⅱ。银行赚的是利差,券商保险赚的是资产端与费率,毛利率与固定资产两个轴对它没有意义。", "ROE 近 5 年中位 5.2%,PB 1.60倍,股息率 1.3%,分红率 30%。", "利率上行对银行是净息差扩张(少数受益方向);对保险是资产端浮亏、对券商是交投与融资成本。"], "加息期怎么走": "按笔记:日债/美债收益率上行期,银行股是例外的受益方向;红利型大行按'现金流红利'拿,盯息差而不盯黄金。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "金融业现金流表不适用;用盈利收益率 5.6%(1/PE)与股息率 1.3% 看。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 17.9 倍 粗算,约 72%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -22%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 28%,现价在 52 周高点的 75%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 16% / -10%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「证券Ⅱ」50 家中位:PE 15.7 / 股息率 1.9% / 毛利率 10.2% / 固定资产占比 0% / 分红率 33%。", "华鑫股份:PE 比行业中位高 2.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 30.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点。"]}}