{"F": {"ts_code": "600619.SH", "name": "海立股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "家用电器", "sw2": "家电零部件Ⅱ", "sw3": "家电零部件Ⅲ", "ind": "家电零部件Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19921116", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.72, "pe_ttm": 72.8545, "pb": 2.3739, "dv_ttm": 0.2041, "total_mv": 1472628.5168, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.2, 11.2, 9.6, 12.4, 13.5, 14.1], "rev_series": [110.7, 157.7, 165.0, 170.3, 187.5, 205.0], "np_series": [1.6, 3.2, 0.4, 0.3, 0.3, 0.7], "roe_series": [3.6, 6.0, 0.6, 0.5, 0.6, 1.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 205.0, "np_ttm": 2.0, "ocf_ttm": 11.5, "fcf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_yield": 0.7, "ocf_yield": 7.8, "gm_median": 12.4, "gm_std": 1.6, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": -3.5, "npm_median": 0.1, "roe_median": 0.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 21.9, "fix_assets": 52.6, "goodwill_ratio": 3.0, "pb_calc": 2.37, "capex_dep": 1.66, "interest_debt": 36.1, "debt_ebitda": 2.2, "debt_ratio": 66.8, "debt_mv": 24.5, "payout": 40.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 7.5, "np_cagr3": 26.5, "rev_yoy": 0.0, "np_yoy": 390.7, "np_vol": 74.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["压缩机及相关制冷设备", 35.0], ["汽车零部件业务", 13.0], ["其他业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 73.3, "ret_prev2_year": 79.9, "ret_ytd": -34.9, "ret_pivot": 74.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.6, "ret_60": -4.7, "ret_120": -23.1, "ret_250": -41.3, "mdd_250": -56.3, "vol_250": 48.9, "pos_52w": 49.8}, "S": {"duration": 84, "pricing": 42, "hard": 35, "bondness": 34}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 72.9 倍、股息率 0.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 12.4%、固定资产占比 22%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 22%,毛利率近 5 年中位 12.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.7%(经营现金流/市值 7.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.4%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 22%,资本开支/折旧 1.66 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 72.9 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -41%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 50%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -5% / -23%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「家电零部件Ⅱ」34 家中位:PE 50.3 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 18.8% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 39%。", "海立股份:PE 比行业中位高 22.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.3个百分点。"]}}