{"F": {"ts_code": "600618.SH", "name": "氯碱化工", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学原料", "sw3": "氯碱", "ind": "化学原料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19921113", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.46, "pe_ttm": 15.2605, "pb": 1.2857, "dv_ttm": 2.2945, "total_mv": 1209594.4, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.0, 31.9, 28.0, 17.6, 18.0, 16.7], "rev_series": [48.9, 66.6, 63.6, 72.1, 81.8, 78.2], "np_series": [6.1, 17.7, 13.7, 7.6, 7.9, 8.6], "roe_series": [12.4, 29.5, 18.7, 9.6, 9.4, 9.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 80.4, "np_ttm": 7.9, "ocf_ttm": 10.1, "fcf_ttm": -9.3, "fcf_yield": -7.7, "ocf_yield": 8.3, "gm_median": 18.0, "gm_std": 6.3, "gm_stab": 0.65, "gm_chg_2022": 11.0, "npm_median": 11.2, "roe_median": 9.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 61.7, "fix_assets": 93.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.29, "capex_dep": 4.2, "interest_debt": 20.5, "debt_ebitda": 1.8, "debt_ratio": 37.8, "debt_mv": 16.9, "payout": 30.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 7.1, "np_cagr3": -14.3, "rev_yoy": 6.2, "np_yoy": -15.8, "np_vol": 84.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 67.0, "earn_yield": 6.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["氯产品", 16.0], ["烧碱", 15.0], ["聚氯乙烯", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 23.7, "ret_prev2_year": 11.4, "ret_ytd": -10.1, "ret_pivot": 48.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.7, "ret_60": 0.0, "ret_120": -28.9, "ret_250": -0.4, "mdd_250": -46.4, "vol_250": 46.9, "pos_52w": 59.9}, "S": {"duration": 32, "pricing": 43, "hard": 99, "bondness": 43}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 62%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 18.0%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 11.0 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 1.8 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 62%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 18.0%,稳定度 65%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -7.7%(经营现金流/市值 8.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.0%,稳定度 65%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 11.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 62%,资本开支/折旧 4.20 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 15.3 倍 粗算,约 67%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -0%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 0% / -29%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学原料」59 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 16.8% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 40%。", "氯碱化工:PE 比行业中位低 20.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 14.3个百分点。"]}}