{"F": {"ts_code": "600617.SH", "name": "国新能源", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "燃气Ⅱ", "sw3": "燃气Ⅲ", "ind": "燃气Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19921013", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.36, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.0357, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 648208.4448, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.4, 20.7, 11.0, 9.5, 7.6, 7.4], "rev_series": [103.5, 126.1, 154.4, 172.0, 161.4, 153.6], "np_series": [-7.6, 0.5, 0.6, 0.8, -3.4, -2.8], "roe_series": [-22.4, 1.4, 1.8, 2.1, -8.7, -7.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 144.9, "np_ttm": -2.5, "ocf_ttm": 19.7, "fcf_ttm": 15.4, "fcf_yield": 23.7, "ocf_yield": 30.3, "gm_median": 9.5, "gm_std": 4.9, "gm_stab": 0.48, "gm_chg_2022": -2.4, "npm_median": -0.7, "roe_median": 1.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 74.0, "fix_assets": 180.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.63, "capex_dep": 0.45, "interest_debt": 154.4, "debt_ebitda": 9.3, "debt_ratio": 80.7, "debt_mv": 238.2, "payout": 241.7, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -0.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -10.6, "np_yoy": 44.3, "np_vol": 234.7, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["燃气相关业务", 47.0], ["燃气业务", 47.0], ["电力相关业务", 2.0], ["电力", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 16.3, "ret_prev2_year": 1.7, "ret_ytd": 7.0, "ret_pivot": 53.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.5, "ret_60": 8.7, "ret_120": -2.9, "ret_250": 14.3, "mdd_250": -43.3, "vol_250": 52.7, "pos_52w": 72.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 27, "hard": 100, "bondness": 70}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -2.5 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 81%,有息负债 154 亿,经营现金流/市值 30.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 74%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 9.5%,稳定度 48%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 23.7%(经营现金流/市值 30.3%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 9.5%,稳定度 48%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 74%,资本开支/折旧 0.45 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 14%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 53%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / 9% / -3%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「燃气Ⅱ」30 家中位:PE 22.2 / 股息率 2.5% / 毛利率 15.7% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 50%。", "国新能源:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 27.4个百分点。"]}}