{"F": {"ts_code": "600616.SH", "name": "金枫酒业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "非白酒", "sw3": "其他酒类", "ind": "非白酒", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19920929", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.62, "pe_ttm": 905.2427, "pb": 1.6319, "dv_ttm": 1.0823, "total_mv": 309080.31, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [41.8, 42.6, 42.3, 40.9, 42.0, 43.4], "rev_series": [6.1, 6.5, 6.6, 5.7, 5.8, 5.3], "np_series": [0.1, -0.1, 0.1, 1.0, 0.1, 0.0], "roe_series": [0.6, -0.7, 0.3, 5.4, 0.3, 0.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.0, "np_ttm": 0.0, "ocf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_yield": -0.3, "ocf_yield": 0.9, "gm_median": 42.3, "gm_std": 0.8, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": 0.5, "npm_median": 0.5, "roe_median": 0.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 18.4, "fix_assets": 3.9, "goodwill_ratio": 1.7, "pb_calc": 1.63, "capex_dep": 1.09, "interest_debt": 0.5, "debt_ebitda": 1.2, "debt_ratio": 11.1, "debt_mv": 1.6, "payout": 555.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -7.3, "np_cagr3": -26.7, "rev_yoy": -12.5, "np_yoy": 19.3, "np_vol": 801.2, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["黄酒", 48.0], ["食品及其他", 1.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -5.2, "ret_prev2_year": -8.3, "ret_ytd": -13.0, "ret_pivot": 2.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 11.6, "ret_60": 11.6, "ret_120": -13.2, "ret_250": -22.4, "mdd_250": -37.7, "vol_250": 26.8, "pos_52w": 77.8}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 63, "hard": 29, "bondness": 65}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 905.2 倍、股息率 1.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 42.3%、固定资产占比 18%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 42.3%),硬资产占比 18%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.3%(经营现金流/市值 0.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 42.3%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.5 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 1.09 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 905.2 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -22%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 27%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 12% / 12% / -13%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「非白酒」16 家中位:PE 22.9 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 40.5% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 60%。", "金枫酒业:PE 比行业中位高 882.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 9.2个百分点。"]}}