{"F": {"ts_code": "600615.SH", "name": "鑫源智造", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "工业金属", "sw3": "铝", "ind": "工业金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19920910", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.68, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.045, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 218404.7096, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [11.5, 11.3, 0.4, 11.6, 15.3, 12.1], "rev_series": [0.6, 1.6, 1.5, 1.6, 1.9, 6.2], "np_series": [0.0, -0.0, -0.1, 0.0, 0.1, -0.0], "roe_series": [0.2, -0.4, -1.3, 0.7, 1.3, -0.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.1, "np_ttm": -0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_yield": 0.7, "ocf_yield": 1.9, "gm_median": 11.6, "gm_std": 5.1, "gm_stab": 0.56, "gm_chg_2022": -11.1, "npm_median": -0.8, "roe_median": -0.4, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 14.6, "fix_assets": 2.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.04, "capex_dep": 0.97, "interest_debt": 0.3, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 42.5, "debt_mv": 1.3, "payout": 20.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 59.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -2.4, "np_yoy": -195.5, "np_vol": 173.4, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["农机、通机、园林机械产品", 27.0], ["农机,通机,园林机械产品", 27.0], ["镁铝金属手动工具配件和车辆配件", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 20.5, "ret_prev2_year": -8.0, "ret_ytd": -13.4, "ret_pivot": 34.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.5, "ret_60": 4.8, "ret_120": -23.6, "ret_250": -28.6, "mdd_250": -42.3, "vol_250": 40.3, "pos_52w": 69.8}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 70, "hard": 23, "bondness": 10}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["商品定价", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 42%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.9%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 11.6%),硬资产占比 15%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.7%(经营现金流/市值 1.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.6%,稳定度 56%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -11.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 15%,资本开支/折旧 0.97 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -29%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / 5% / -24%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工业金属」60 家中位:PE 20.5 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 10.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "鑫源智造:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 12.9个百分点。"]}}