{"F": {"ts_code": "600612.SH", "name": "老凤祥", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "纺织服饰", "sw2": "饰品", "sw3": "钟表珠宝", "ind": "饰品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19920814", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 33.8, "pe_ttm": 14.1395, "pb": 1.3354, "dv_ttm": 4.8817, "total_mv": 1768138.164, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [8.2, 7.8, 7.6, 8.3, 8.9, 9.1], "rev_series": [517.2, 586.9, 630.1, 714.4, 567.9, 528.2], "np_series": [15.9, 18.8, 17.0, 22.1, 19.5, 17.5], "roe_series": [21.2, 21.9, 17.6, 20.4, 16.2, 13.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 394.5, "np_ttm": 12.5, "ocf_ttm": 10.5, "fcf_ttm": 9.4, "fcf_yield": 5.3, "ocf_yield": 5.9, "gm_median": 8.3, "gm_std": 0.6, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -0.6, "npm_median": 4.2, "roe_median": 17.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 1.9, "fix_assets": 4.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.34, "capex_dep": 2.62, "interest_debt": 37.2, "debt_ebitda": 1.3, "debt_ratio": 28.0, "debt_mv": 21.0, "payout": 46.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -5.7, "np_cagr3": 1.1, "rev_yoy": -40.1, "np_yoy": -41.3, "np_vol": 17.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 65.0, "earn_yield": 7.1, "consensus_n": 14, "fwd_pe": 11.4, "fwd_pe2": 10.6, "fwd_g1": 24.0, "fwd_g2": 7.0, "peg": 1.63, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["珠宝首饰", 46.0], ["黄金交易", 4.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": -15.2, "ret_prev2_year": -20.1, "ret_ytd": -21.7, "ret_pivot": -30.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.1, "ret_60": 1.6, "ret_120": -17.6, "ret_250": -27.8, "mdd_250": -43.3, "vol_250": 26.7, "pos_52w": 62.2}, "S": {"duration": 30, "pricing": 44, "hard": 3, "bondness": 69}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 46%、股息率 4.9%、营收 3 年复合 -5.7%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.3 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 2%,毛利率近 5 年中位 8.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.3%(经营现金流/市值 5.9%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 8.3%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 2%,资本开支/折旧 2.62 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 14.1 倍 粗算,约 65%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -28%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 27%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / 2% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「饰品」15 家中位:PE 57.4 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 15.0% / 固定资产占比 3% / 分红率 59%。", "老凤祥:PE 比行业中位低 43.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点。"]}}