{"F": {"ts_code": "600610.SH", "name": "中毅达", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学原料", "sw3": "其他化学原料", "ind": "化学原料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19920805", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.55, "pe_ttm": 199.531, "pb": 58.8745, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 915939.783, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.0, 18.0, 12.1, 3.1, 9.1, 18.8], "rev_series": [10.8, 13.9, 13.7, 12.1, 11.0, 10.4], "np_series": [0.5, 0.4, 0.1, -1.2, -0.1, 0.5], "roe_series": [67.8, 37.8, 8.1, -144.1, -31.4, 54.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 11.0, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_yield": 1.5, "ocf_yield": 1.6, "gm_median": 12.1, "gm_std": 5.8, "gm_stab": 0.52, "gm_chg_2022": -1.9, "npm_median": 0.8, "roe_median": 8.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 30.1, "fix_assets": 3.3, "goodwill_ratio": 14.8, "pb_calc": 58.87, "capex_dep": 0.07, "interest_debt": 7.8, "debt_ebitda": 3.6, "debt_ratio": 85.7, "debt_mv": 8.5, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -8.6, "np_cagr3": 65.9, "rev_yoy": 11.9, "np_yoy": -12.2, "np_vol": 549.6, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["季戊四醇系列产品", 33.0], ["季戊四醇", 33.0], ["三羟甲基丙烷系列产品", 7.0], ["三羟甲基丙烷", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 134.8, "ret_prev2_year": -55.0, "ret_ytd": -13.9, "ret_pivot": 128.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 21.6, "ret_60": 2.4, "ret_120": -20.5, "ret_250": -37.9, "mdd_250": -57.4, "vol_250": 53.5, "pos_52w": 60.3}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 30, "hard": 48, "bondness": 31}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 30%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 12.1%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.9 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 3.6 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 30%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 12.1%,稳定度 52%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.5%(经营现金流/市值 1.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.1%,稳定度 52%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 0.07 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 199.5 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -38%,最大回撤 -57%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 22% / 2% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学原料」59 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 16.8% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 40%。", "中毅达:PE 比行业中位高 163.6倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 17.3个百分点。"]}}