{"F": {"ts_code": "600605.SH", "name": "汇通能源", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "商贸零售", "sw2": "一般零售", "sw3": "商业物业经营", "ind": "一般零售", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19920327", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 28.03, "pe_ttm": 197.4647, "pb": 4.0237, "dv_ttm": 0.1427, "total_mv": 578209.5672, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [70.4, 71.3, 64.2, 48.1, 44.2, 52.1], "rev_series": [0.9, 1.1, 1.1, 1.3, 1.4, 1.0], "np_series": [0.5, 0.6, 0.1, 0.6, 1.0, 0.2], "roe_series": [6.7, 6.4, 0.8, 4.7, 7.1, 1.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1.3, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": -0.0, "fcf_ttm": -0.0, "fcf_yield": -0.1, "ocf_yield": -0.0, "gm_median": 52.1, "gm_std": 10.2, "gm_stab": 0.8, "gm_chg_2022": -6.2, "npm_median": 41.7, "roe_median": 4.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.4, "fix_assets": 0.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.02, "capex_dep": 0.84, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 3.6, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 33.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -1.7, "np_cagr3": 37.5, "rev_yoy": 44.3, "np_yoy": 25.0, "np_vol": 218.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.5, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 100.1, "fwd_pe2": 34.6, "fwd_g1": 97.0, "fwd_g2": 189.0, "peg": 0.53, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["半导体销售", 27.0], ["半导体产品销售", 27.0], ["租赁", 17.0], ["房产租赁", 17.0]], "ret_prev_year": -13.2, "ret_prev2_year": 27.9, "ret_ytd": -6.4, "ret_pivot": 7.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 18.3, "ret_60": -6.2, "ret_120": -4.0, "ret_250": -20.3, "mdd_250": -38.4, "vol_250": 46.4, "pos_52w": 79.2}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 58, "hard": 1, "bondness": 33}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 197.5 倍,估值里约 97% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 0%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(1 篇研报)前瞻 PE 100.1 倍,次年 34.6 倍,PEG 0.53。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 0%,毛利率近 5 年中位 52.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.1%(经营现金流/市值 -0.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 52.1%,稳定度 80%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 0%,资本开支/折旧 0.84 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 197.5 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -20%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 46%,现价在 52 周高点的 79%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 18% / -6% / -4%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「一般零售」60 家中位:PE 60.7 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 34.2% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 51%。", "汇通能源:PE 比行业中位高 136.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 17.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 15.0个百分点。"]}}