{"F": {"ts_code": "600604.SH", "name": "市北高新", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "房地产", "sw2": "房地产开发", "sw3": "产业地产", "ind": "房地产开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19920327", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.86, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.5128, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 910426.1328, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [52.3, 49.8, 47.1, 31.3, 27.4, 15.2], "rev_series": [12.0, 11.1, 12.6, 10.2, 25.8, 11.0], "np_series": [1.8, 1.2, 0.8, -1.8, 0.3, -3.2], "roe_series": [2.8, 1.8, 1.2, -2.7, 0.5, -5.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 18.1, "np_ttm": -2.4, "ocf_ttm": 5.1, "fcf_ttm": 3.5, "fcf_yield": 3.8, "ocf_yield": 5.6, "gm_median": 31.3, "gm_std": 12.9, "gm_stab": 0.59, "gm_chg_2022": -5.2, "npm_median": 3.7, "roe_median": 0.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 5.6, "fix_assets": 11.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.3, "pb_calc": 1.51, "capex_dep": 0.4, "interest_debt": 107.6, "debt_ebitda": 22.1, "debt_ratio": 61.3, "debt_mv": 118.2, "payout": 50.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -4.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 117.7, "np_yoy": 50.0, "np_vol": 449.1, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["园区产业载体销售", 69.0], ["园区产业载体租赁", 18.0], ["其他服务业", 13.0], ["住宅销售", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 16.6, "ret_prev2_year": 2.8, "ret_ytd": -12.3, "ret_pivot": 32.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 9.5, "ret_60": 18.5, "ret_120": -6.2, "ret_250": -20.7, "mdd_250": -43.5, "vol_250": 45.3, "pos_52w": 69.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 40, "hard": 9, "bondness": 52}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -2.4 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 61%,有息负债 108 亿,经营现金流/市值 5.6%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 6%,毛利率近 5 年中位 31.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.8%(经营现金流/市值 5.6%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 31.3%,稳定度 59%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 0.40 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -21%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 45%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / 18% / -6%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「房地产开发」83 家中位:PE 26.0 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 21.1% / 固定资产占比 2% / 分红率 36%。", "市北高新:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 10.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.6个百分点。"]}}