{"F": {"ts_code": "600603.SH", "name": "广汇物流", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "物流", "sw3": "原材料供应链服务", "ind": "物流", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19920113", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.84, "pe_ttm": 46.2417, "pb": 0.7636, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 558439.2, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [47.1, 44.2, 28.2, 36.2, 41.6, 36.4], "rev_series": [43.9, 33.2, 21.3, 49.3, 37.4, 27.1], "np_series": [8.3, 5.7, 1.5, 5.8, 5.1, 3.7], "roe_series": [12.5, 9.4, 2.9, 9.9, 7.6, 5.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 23.6, "np_ttm": 1.2, "ocf_ttm": 10.2, "fcf_ttm": 8.5, "fcf_yield": 15.3, "ocf_yield": 18.2, "gm_median": 36.4, "gm_std": 5.5, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": -18.8, "npm_median": 12.9, "roe_median": 7.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 48.5, "fix_assets": 101.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.76, "capex_dep": 0.4, "interest_debt": 57.3, "debt_ebitda": 7.2, "debt_ratio": 58.7, "debt_mv": 102.6, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 8.4, "np_cagr3": 33.8, "rev_yoy": -24.7, "np_yoy": -95.1, "np_vol": 126.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["能源物流服务收入", 45.0], ["能源物流服务", 45.0], ["房地产销售收入", 3.0], ["商品房销售", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": -35.3, "ret_prev2_year": 23.7, "ret_ytd": -22.2, "ret_pivot": -6.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 10.3, "ret_60": 8.5, "ret_120": -39.9, "ret_250": -43.7, "mdd_250": -57.8, "vol_250": 42.0, "pos_52w": 50.8}, "S": {"duration": 69, "pricing": 52, "hard": 78, "bondness": 27}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 46.2 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 36.4%、固定资产占比 48%、有息负债/EBITDA 7.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 48%、毛利率 36.4% 看起来两条都占,但价格受管制(物流:电价/通行费/港口费由主管部门或市场化机制定),高毛利来自成本结构不是提价能力。通胀来了它不能提价,利润跟不上通胀,所以不算。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 15.3%(经营现金流/市值 18.2%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 36.4%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -18.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 48%,资本开支/折旧 0.40 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 46.2 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -44%,最大回撤 -58%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 51%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / 8% / -40%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「物流」48 家中位:PE 21.4 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 10.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 43%。", "广汇物流:PE 比行业中位高 24.8倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 26.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 30.9个百分点。"]}}