{"F": {"ts_code": "600601.SH", "name": "方正科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "元件", "sw3": "印制电路板", "ind": "元件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19901219", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.09, "pe_ttm": 64.0666, "pb": 10.659, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 5594329.4561, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.3, 15.8, 16.2, 18.3, 22.0, 25.1], "rev_series": [59.7, 54.3, 48.9, 31.5, 34.8, 49.4], "np_series": [-9.2, -12.1, -4.2, 1.4, 2.6, 4.7], "roe_series": [-70.2, -7777.1, -30.8, 3.7, 6.5, 10.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 65.0, "np_ttm": 8.7, "ocf_ttm": 9.4, "fcf_ttm": -11.6, "fcf_yield": -2.1, "ocf_yield": 1.7, "gm_median": 18.3, "gm_std": 3.6, "gm_stab": 0.81, "gm_chg_2022": -1.1, "npm_median": 4.3, "roe_median": 3.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 43.4, "fix_assets": 49.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 10.66, "capex_dep": 7.16, "interest_debt": 24.8, "debt_ebitda": 1.8, "debt_ratio": 53.6, "debt_mv": 4.4, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 0.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 72.9, "np_yoy": 232.4, "np_vol": 54.4, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.6, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 45.1, "fwd_pe2": 31.9, "fwd_g1": 42.0, "fwd_g2": 41.0, "peg": 1.1, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["PCB业务", 50.0], ["硬件产品销售", 50.0], ["服务费收入", 0.0], ["融合通信及其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 167.0, "ret_prev2_year": 51.9, "ret_ytd": 11.7, "ret_pivot": 377.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.7, "ret_60": 11.7, "ret_120": 24.4, "ret_250": 62.8, "mdd_250": -42.6, "vol_250": 66.8, "pos_52w": 86.6}, "S": {"duration": 80, "pricing": 44, "hard": 69, "bondness": 25}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 43%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 18.3%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.1 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 1.8 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 43%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 18.3%,稳定度 81%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.1%(经营现金流/市值 1.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.3%,稳定度 81%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 43%,资本开支/折旧 7.16 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 64.1 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 63%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 67%,现价在 52 周高点的 87%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 12% / 24%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「元件」67 家中位:PE 65.2 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 21.3% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 44%。", "方正科技:PE 比行业中位低 1.1倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.5个百分点。"]}}