{"F": {"ts_code": "600600.SH", "name": "青岛啤酒", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "非白酒", "sw3": "啤酒", "ind": "非白酒", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19930827", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 51.49, "pe_ttm": 15.2582, "pb": 2.2405, "dv_ttm": 4.564, "total_mv": 7024240.5699, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [40.4, 36.7, 36.8, 38.7, 40.2, 41.8], "rev_series": [277.6, 301.7, 321.7, 339.4, 321.4, 324.7], "np_series": [22.0, 31.6, 37.1, 42.7, 43.4, 45.9], "roe_series": [11.1, 14.5, 15.3, 16.1, 15.4, 15.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 316.4, "np_ttm": 46.0, "ocf_ttm": 53.0, "fcf_ttm": 28.8, "fcf_yield": 4.1, "ocf_yield": 7.5, "gm_median": 38.7, "gm_std": 2.0, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -3.6, "npm_median": 12.8, "roe_median": 15.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 24.7, "fix_assets": 137.2, "goodwill_ratio": 2.4, "pb_calc": 2.24, "capex_dep": 2.28, "interest_debt": 1.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 41.9, "debt_mv": 0.2, "payout": 69.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 0.3, "np_cagr3": 7.3, "rev_yoy": -4.1, "np_yoy": 0.4, "np_vol": 14.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 67.0, "earn_yield": 6.6, "consensus_n": 37, "fwd_pe": 14.9, "fwd_pe2": 14.1, "fwd_g1": 3.0, "fwd_g2": 5.0, "peg": 2.98, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["销售啤酒等", 33.0], ["啤酒", 33.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -22.9, "ret_prev2_year": 12.0, "ret_ytd": -12.5, "ret_pivot": -1.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.9, "ret_60": -11.7, "ret_120": -15.7, "ret_250": -23.5, "mdd_250": -27.0, "vol_250": 18.4, "pos_52w": 76.4}, "S": {"duration": 32, "pricing": 57, "hard": 40, "bondness": 72}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 70%、股息率 4.6%、营收 3 年复合 0.3%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 38.7%),硬资产占比 25%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.1%(经营现金流/市值 7.5%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 38.7%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 25%,资本开支/折旧 2.28 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 15.3 倍 粗算,约 67%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -24%,最大回撤 -27%,年化波动 18%,现价在 52 周高点的 76%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -12% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「非白酒」16 家中位:PE 22.9 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 40.5% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 60%。", "青岛啤酒:PE 比行业中位低 7.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 3.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.9个百分点。"]}}