{"F": {"ts_code": "600598.SH", "name": "北大荒", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "种植业", "sw3": "粮食种植", "ind": "种植业", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20020329", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.11, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.5922, "dv_ttm": 4.1953, "total_mv": 2330538.3489, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [46.2, 42.9, 39.6, 35.4, 34.6, 34.6], "rev_series": [32.4, 36.3, 42.6, 50.4, 53.4, 52.3], "np_series": [9.9, 8.6, 9.8, 10.6, 10.9, 11.7], "roe_series": [14.5, 12.2, 13.6, 14.5, 14.2, 14.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 43.4, "np_ttm": -3.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_ttm": -1.2, "fcf_yield": -0.5, "ocf_yield": 0.1, "gm_median": 35.4, "gm_std": 3.3, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -6.6, "npm_median": 21.5, "roe_median": 14.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 34.0, "fix_assets": 35.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.59, "capex_dep": 0.57, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 39.5, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 83.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 7.1, "np_cagr3": 6.1, "rev_yoy": -29.4, "np_yoy": -154.5, "np_vol": 12.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 18.7, "fwd_pe2": 17.5, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 7.0, "peg": 2.67, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["土地承包费", 31.0], ["土地承包", 31.0], ["农产品销售", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 5.5, "ret_prev2_year": 30.9, "ret_ytd": -9.0, "ret_pivot": 11.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.7, "ret_60": -6.4, "ret_120": -22.6, "ret_250": -10.6, "mdd_250": -37.9, "vol_250": 36.6, "pos_52w": 76.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 53, "hard": 54, "bondness": 67}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 84%、股息率 4.2%、营收 3 年复合 7.1%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 34%、毛利率 35.4% 两条都占,但所在行业(农林牧渔)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.5%(经营现金流/市值 0.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 35.4%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 34%,资本开支/折旧 0.57 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -11%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 37%,现价在 52 周高点的 76%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / -6% / -23%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「种植业」22 家中位:PE 71.5 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 24.2% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 38%。", "北大荒:PE ;股息率 比行业中位高 3.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 11.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 17.2个百分点。"]}}