{"F": {"ts_code": "600597.SH", "name": "光明乳业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "饮料乳品", "sw3": "乳品", "ind": "饮料乳品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20020828", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.06, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.0032, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 973202.5028, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.8, 18.4, 18.7, 19.7, 19.2, 17.3], "rev_series": [252.2, 292.1, 282.1, 264.9, 242.8, 239.0], "np_series": [6.1, 5.9, 3.6, 9.7, 7.2, -1.5], "roe_series": [10.1, 8.4, 4.5, 11.4, 7.8, -1.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 233.0, "np_ttm": -1.2, "ocf_ttm": 6.6, "fcf_ttm": 1.7, "fcf_yield": 1.8, "ocf_yield": 6.8, "gm_median": 18.7, "gm_std": 0.8, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -7.2, "npm_median": 1.9, "roe_median": 7.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 35.7, "fix_assets": 69.2, "goodwill_ratio": 3.7, "pb_calc": 1.0, "capex_dep": 0.49, "interest_debt": 20.8, "debt_ebitda": 1.5, "debt_ratio": 44.1, "debt_mv": 21.4, "payout": 31.1, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -5.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -4.8, "np_yoy": 15.3, "np_vol": 94.8, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 28.2, "fwd_pe2": 23.1, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 22.0, "peg": 1.28, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["液态奶", 25.0], ["其他乳制品", 19.0], ["牧业", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": -3.5, "ret_prev2_year": 0.4, "ret_ytd": -12.7, "ret_pivot": -4.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.1, "ret_60": 6.8, "ret_120": -11.0, "ret_250": -20.2, "mdd_250": -31.5, "vol_250": 18.2, "pos_52w": 79.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 47, "hard": 57, "bondness": 35}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 36%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 18.7%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.2 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 1.5 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 36%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 18.7%,稳定度 96%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.8%(经营现金流/市值 6.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.7%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 36%,资本开支/折旧 0.49 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -20%,最大回撤 -32%,年化波动 18%,现价在 52 周高点的 80%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 7% / -11%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「饮料乳品」27 家中位:PE 29.0 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 29.2% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 52%。", "光明乳业:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 6.0个百分点。"]}}