{"F": {"ts_code": "600596.SH", "name": "新安股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "农化制品", "sw3": "农药", "ind": "农化制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20010906", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.02, "pe_ttm": 44.7983, "pb": 1.1829, "dv_ttm": 0.9074, "total_mv": 1487255.894, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.3, 25.6, 24.3, 12.5, 11.1, 11.7], "rev_series": [125.2, 189.8, 218.0, 146.3, 146.7, 146.2], "np_series": [5.8, 26.5, 29.5, 1.4, 0.5, 1.5], "roe_series": [9.6, 34.4, 28.8, 1.2, 0.4, 1.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 151.3, "np_ttm": 3.3, "ocf_ttm": 8.3, "fcf_ttm": 1.8, "fcf_yield": 1.2, "ocf_yield": 5.6, "gm_median": 12.5, "gm_std": 6.5, "gm_stab": 0.48, "gm_chg_2022": 10.1, "npm_median": 1.2, "roe_median": 1.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 49.1, "fix_assets": 109.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.7, "pb_calc": 1.18, "capex_dep": 0.82, "interest_debt": 34.5, "debt_ebitda": 2.4, "debt_ratio": 38.8, "debt_mv": 23.2, "payout": 91.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -12.5, "np_cagr3": -63.2, "rev_yoy": 6.3, "np_yoy": 268.0, "np_vol": 168.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.2, "consensus_n": 9, "fwd_pe": 23.6, "fwd_pe2": 15.7, "fwd_g1": 90.0, "fwd_g2": 50.0, "peg": 0.47, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 26.0], ["农化产品", 15.0], ["自产农化产品", 13.0], ["农化产品：农化自产品", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 32.5, "ret_prev2_year": -2.7, "ret_ytd": -3.1, "ret_pivot": 64.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.4, "ret_60": -22.9, "ret_120": -15.4, "ret_250": 6.2, "mdd_250": -44.7, "vol_250": 53.4, "pos_52w": 61.9}, "S": {"duration": 67, "pricing": 34, "hard": 79, "bondness": 65}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["成长兑现", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 49%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 12.5%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 10.1 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 2.4 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 49%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 12.5%,稳定度 48%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.2%(经营现金流/市值 5.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.5%,稳定度 48%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 10.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 49%,资本开支/折旧 0.82 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 44.8 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 6%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 53%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / -23% / -15%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「农化制品」62 家中位:PE 20.8 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 19.9% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 45%。", "新安股份:PE 比行业中位高 24.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 7.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 13.5个百分点。"]}}