{"F": {"ts_code": "600595.SH", "name": "中孚实业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "工业金属", "sw3": "铝", "ind": "工业金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20020626", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.36, "pe_ttm": 9.1342, "pb": 1.3932, "dv_ttm": 2.7516, "total_mv": 2549027.6436, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.1, 21.5, 16.1, 15.7, 9.7, 13.2], "rev_series": [81.8, 152.2, 175.2, 187.9, 227.6, 230.7], "np_series": [-17.8, 6.6, 10.5, 11.6, 7.0, 16.2], "roe_series": [-70.8, 12.3, 9.9, 9.0, 5.0, 10.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 267.5, "np_ttm": 27.9, "ocf_ttm": 18.7, "fcf_ttm": 8.6, "fcf_yield": 3.4, "ocf_yield": 7.4, "gm_median": 15.7, "gm_std": 3.9, "gm_stab": 0.75, "gm_chg_2022": -3.1, "npm_median": 8.3, "roe_median": 9.9, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 52.6, "fix_assets": 143.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.39, "capex_dep": 1.22, "interest_debt": 38.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.8, "debt_ratio": 33.3, "debt_mv": 15.1, "payout": 43.7, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 9.6, "np_cagr3": 15.5, "rev_yoy": 34.8, "np_yoy": 165.8, "np_vol": 68.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 45.0, "earn_yield": 10.9, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 6.7, "fwd_pe2": 6.5, "fwd_g1": 36.0, "fwd_g2": 4.0, "peg": 1.68, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["有色金属", 47.0], ["电力", 4.0], ["煤炭", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 189.1, "ret_prev2_year": -19.7, "ret_ytd": -17.1, "ret_pivot": 188.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.1, "ret_60": -3.6, "ret_120": -24.2, "ret_250": 17.9, "mdd_250": -46.1, "vol_250": 56.6, "pos_52w": 61.9}, "S": {"duration": 20, "pricing": 70, "hard": 84, "bondness": 45}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 143 亿,占总资产 53%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:铝 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 3.4%,股息率 2.8%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 45%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 53%)和定价权(商品价格)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.4%(经营现金流/市值 7.4%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.7%,稳定度 75%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 53%,资本开支/折旧 1.22 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 9.1 倍 粗算,约 45%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 18%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 57%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -4% / -24%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工业金属」60 家中位:PE 20.5 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 10.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "中孚实业:PE 比行业中位低 11.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 25.1个百分点。"]}}