{"F": {"ts_code": "600590.SH", "name": "泰豪科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "其他电源设备Ⅱ", "sw3": "其他电源设备Ⅲ", "ind": "其他电源设备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20020703", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.7, "pe_ttm": 171.1503, "pb": 2.3494, "dv_ttm": 0.2644, "total_mv": 741996.639, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.7, 17.0, 16.8, 18.1, 17.2, 17.9], "rev_series": [60.4, 60.6, 61.9, 42.8, 43.6, 45.2], "np_series": [-2.6, 0.9, 0.8, 0.6, -9.9, 0.6], "roe_series": [-7.0, 2.5, 2.1, 1.6, -30.2, 1.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 46.3, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": 4.3, "fcf_ttm": 2.7, "fcf_yield": 3.6, "ocf_yield": 5.8, "gm_median": 17.2, "gm_std": 0.5, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": -3.9, "npm_median": 2.3, "roe_median": 1.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 4.5, "fix_assets": 5.1, "goodwill_ratio": 2.8, "pb_calc": 2.35, "capex_dep": 2.95, "interest_debt": 44.1, "debt_ebitda": 9.3, "debt_ratio": 65.7, "debt_mv": 59.4, "payout": 32.9, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -9.9, "np_cagr3": -7.9, "rev_yoy": 5.7, "np_yoy": -16.3, "np_vol": 767.3, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["应急电源", 27.0], ["应急装备业务", 26.0], ["装备信息产品", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 73.9, "ret_prev2_year": -18.9, "ret_ytd": -7.3, "ret_pivot": 127.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.5, "ret_60": -23.9, "ret_120": -39.9, "ret_250": -26.3, "mdd_250": -57.5, "vol_250": 58.1, "pos_52w": 49.5}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 47, "hard": 7, "bondness": 48}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 171.2 倍,估值里约 97% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 4%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 4%,毛利率近 5 年中位 17.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.6%(经营现金流/市值 5.8%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.2%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 4%,资本开支/折旧 2.95 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 171.2 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -26%,最大回撤 -58%,年化波动 58%,现价在 52 周高点的 50%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -24% / -40%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「其他电源设备Ⅱ」33 家中位:PE 69.0 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 25.3% / 固定资产占比 16% / 分红率 34%。", "泰豪科技:PE 比行业中位高 102.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 11.6个百分点。"]}}