{"F": {"ts_code": "600589.SH", "name": "大位科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "IT服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "IT服务Ⅲ", "ind": "IT服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20010612", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.14, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 20.6296, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1205997.8986, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [8.9, -8.7, -9.9, 3.9, 12.2, 17.1], "rev_series": [10.7, 7.8, 4.2, 3.7, 4.1, 4.4], "np_series": [-12.2, -7.2, -7.5, 0.8, -0.2, -0.2], "roe_series": [-61.7, -103.5, null, null, -3.4, -2.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.9, "np_ttm": -1.6, "ocf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_ttm": -3.3, "fcf_yield": -2.8, "ocf_yield": 0.5, "gm_median": 3.9, "gm_std": 10.9, "gm_stab": -1.78, "gm_chg_2022": -18.8, "npm_median": -5.3, "roe_median": -3.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 65.3, "fix_assets": 26.6, "goodwill_ratio": 3.1, "pb_calc": 20.63, "capex_dep": 4.24, "interest_debt": 17.7, "debt_ebitda": 42.6, "debt_ratio": 85.6, "debt_mv": 14.6, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 1.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 26.1, "np_yoy": -202.3, "np_vol": 77.6, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 203.5, "fwd_pe2": 90.4, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 125.0, "peg": 1.63, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["互联网服务", 50.0], ["互联网收入", 50.0], ["租金及其他收入", 0.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 56.3, "ret_prev2_year": 43.6, "ret_ytd": 13.7, "ret_pivot": 189.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.7, "ret_60": -13.7, "ret_120": -25.0, "ret_250": -8.7, "mdd_250": -50.5, "vol_250": 67.2, "pos_52w": 58.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 6, "hard": 100, "bondness": 34}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 65%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 3.9%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -18.8 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 42.6 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 65%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 3.9%,稳定度 -178%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.8%(经营现金流/市值 0.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 3.9%,稳定度 -178%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -18.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 65%,资本开支/折旧 4.24 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -9%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 67%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -14% / -25%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「IT服务Ⅱ」134 家中位:PE 84.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 28.1% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 35%。", "大位科技:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 24.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 56.7个百分点。"]}}