{"F": {"ts_code": "600586.SH", "name": "金晶科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑材料", "sw2": "玻璃玻纤", "sw3": "玻璃制造", "ind": "玻璃玻纤", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20020815", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.13, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.2067, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 585360.4701, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.2, 34.3, 16.7, 18.2, 13.7, 0.9], "rev_series": [48.8, 69.2, 74.6, 79.7, 64.5, 45.2], "np_series": [3.3, 13.1, 3.6, 4.6, 0.6, -5.8], "roe_series": [7.8, 26.5, 6.5, 8.2, 1.0, -10.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 39.4, "np_ttm": -8.0, "ocf_ttm": 2.5, "fcf_ttm": 2.6, "fcf_yield": 4.5, "ocf_yield": 4.3, "gm_median": 16.7, "gm_std": 10.7, "gm_stab": 0.36, "gm_chg_2022": -3.5, "npm_median": 4.6, "roe_median": 6.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 55.2, "fix_assets": 50.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.21, "capex_dep": -0.02, "interest_debt": 22.4, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 47.1, "debt_mv": 38.3, "payout": 52.8, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -15.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -24.4, "np_yoy": -225.6, "np_vol": 464.0, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 51.6, "fwd_pe2": 14.7, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 250.0, "peg": 0.21, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 52.0], ["玻璃", 36.0], ["纯碱", 16.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 0.4, "ret_prev2_year": -14.6, "ret_ytd": -26.6, "ret_pivot": -15.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.2, "ret_60": -12.1, "ret_120": -33.9, "ret_250": -18.9, "mdd_250": -47.8, "vol_250": 49.4, "pos_52w": 55.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 26, "hard": 88, "bondness": 41}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 55%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 16.7%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.5 个百分点;资产负债率 47%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 55%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 16.7%,稳定度 36%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.5%(经营现金流/市值 4.3%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.7%,稳定度 36%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 55%,资本开支/折旧 -0.02 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -19%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 55%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / -12% / -34%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「玻璃玻纤」16 家中位:PE 68.1 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 22.1% / 固定资产占比 53% / 分红率 37%。", "金晶科技:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.0个百分点。"]}}