{"F": {"ts_code": "600585.SH", "name": "海螺水泥", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑材料", "sw2": "水泥", "sw3": "水泥制造", "ind": "水泥", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20020207", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.88, "pe_ttm": 15.1561, "pb": 0.4934, "dv_ttm": 4.7595, "total_mv": 9435383.28, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [29.2, 29.6, 21.3, 16.6, 21.7, 24.2], "rev_series": [1762.4, 1679.5, 1320.2, 1410.0, 910.3, 825.3], "np_series": [351.3, 332.7, 156.6, 104.3, 77.0, 81.1], "roe_series": [23.5, 19.3, 8.5, 5.7, 4.1, 4.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 781.7, "np_ttm": 62.7, "ocf_ttm": 128.7, "fcf_ttm": 39.7, "fcf_yield": 4.2, "ocf_yield": 13.6, "gm_median": 21.7, "gm_std": 4.3, "gm_stab": 0.8, "gm_chg_2022": -7.9, "npm_median": 9.5, "roe_median": 5.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 38.2, "fix_assets": 963.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.5, "pb_calc": 0.49, "capex_dep": 1.26, "interest_debt": 262.9, "debt_ebitda": 1.8, "debt_ratio": 20.0, "debt_mv": 27.9, "payout": 48.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -14.5, "np_cagr3": -19.7, "rev_yoy": -10.9, "np_yoy": -42.8, "np_vol": 20.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 67.0, "earn_yield": 6.6, "consensus_n": 22, "fwd_pe": 12.4, "fwd_pe2": 10.8, "fwd_g1": 22.0, "fwd_g2": 15.0, "peg": 0.83, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 37.0], ["建材行业(自产品销售)-45级水泥", 20.0], ["42.5级水泥", 20.0], ["其他业务", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": -4.4, "ret_prev2_year": 10.9, "ret_ytd": -15.9, "ret_pivot": -3.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.7, "ret_60": -0.4, "ret_120": -27.7, "ret_250": -25.1, "mdd_250": -36.6, "vol_250": 23.8, "pos_52w": 69.4}, "S": {"duration": 32, "pricing": 43, "hard": 61, "bondness": 71}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 49%、股息率 4.8%、营收 3 年复合 -14.5%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.8 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 38%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 21.7%,稳定度 80%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.2%(经营现金流/市值 13.6%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.7%,稳定度 80%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 1.26 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 15.2 倍 粗算,约 67%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -25%,最大回撤 -37%,年化波动 24%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / -0% / -28%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「水泥」21 家中位:PE 19.9 / 股息率 2.8% / 毛利率 17.5% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "海螺水泥:PE 比行业中位低 4.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 6.4个百分点。"]}}