{"F": {"ts_code": "600582.SH", "name": "天地科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "能源及重型设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20020515", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.74, "pe_ttm": 17.8068, "pb": 0.7811, "dv_ttm": 6.3291, "total_mv": 1961691.1386, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.8, 29.9, 30.3, 30.9, 30.5, 25.6], "rev_series": [205.5, 235.7, 274.2, 299.3, 305.3, 292.4], "np_series": [13.6, 16.2, 19.5, 23.6, 26.2, 24.5], "roe_series": [7.8, 8.7, 9.9, 10.9, 11.1, 9.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 276.9, "np_ttm": 11.0, "ocf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_ttm": -5.6, "fcf_yield": -2.9, "ocf_yield": 0.7, "gm_median": 30.3, "gm_std": 2.0, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": 1.4, "npm_median": 10.6, "roe_median": 9.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.8, "fix_assets": 78.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.78, "capex_dep": 1.13, "interest_debt": 5.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 44.6, "debt_mv": 2.8, "payout": 50.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 2.2, "np_cagr3": 7.8, "rev_yoy": -11.0, "np_yoy": -64.7, "np_vol": 10.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 72.0, "earn_yield": 5.6, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 8.1, "fwd_pe2": 7.8, "fwd_g1": 120.0, "fwd_g2": 4.0, "peg": 2.02, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["产品销售", 34.0], ["工程项目", 8.0], ["技术服务", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": -0.6, "ret_prev2_year": 22.5, "ret_ytd": -14.3, "ret_pivot": 0.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.3, "ret_60": -9.4, "ret_120": -20.6, "ret_250": -21.4, "mdd_250": -29.1, "vol_250": 20.8, "pos_52w": 77.1}, "S": {"duration": 36, "pricing": 57, "hard": 22, "bondness": 66}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 50%、股息率 6.3%、营收 3 年复合 2.2%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.2 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 30.3%),硬资产占比 14%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.9%(经营现金流/市值 0.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 30.3%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.4 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 1.13 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 17.8 倍 粗算,约 72%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -21%,最大回撤 -29%,年化波动 21%,现价在 52 周高点的 77%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / -9% / -21%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "天地科技:PE 比行业中位低 24.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 5.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.2个百分点。"]}}