{"F": {"ts_code": "600581.SH", "name": "*ST八钢", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "钢铁", "sw2": "普钢", "sw3": "板材", "ind": "普钢", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20020816", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 2.43, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": null, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 372494.1897, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [10.5, 10.5, 0.2, 3.8, -1.9, 1.0], "rev_series": [217.2, 308.8, 230.4, 229.7, 186.7, 187.5], "np_series": [3.2, 11.8, -13.7, -11.6, -17.6, -18.8], "roe_series": [7.3, 26.9, -38.0, -49.4, -191.5, null], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 193.3, "np_ttm": -15.2, "ocf_ttm": -10.5, "fcf_ttm": -15.5, "fcf_yield": -41.6, "ocf_yield": -28.1, "gm_median": 1.0, "gm_std": 4.3, "gm_stab": -3.29, "gm_chg_2022": -10.3, "npm_median": -6.1, "roe_median": -43.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 58.1, "fix_assets": 150.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": 0.4, "interest_debt": 110.7, "debt_ebitda": 14.4, "debt_ratio": 101.8, "debt_mv": 297.1, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -6.6, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 6.7, "np_yoy": 50.9, "np_vol": 152.2, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["钢材产品", 91.0], ["其他主营业务", 3.0], ["其他", 3.0], ["化工产品及能源介质", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 8.8, "ret_prev2_year": -14.5, "ret_ytd": -27.2, "ret_pivot": -10.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.8, "ret_60": -4.0, "ret_120": -18.5, "ret_250": -47.9, "mdd_250": -56.6, "vol_250": 40.4, "pos_52w": 50.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 4, "hard": 93, "bondness": 35}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 58%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 1.0%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.3 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 14.4 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 58%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 1.0%,稳定度 -329%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -41.6%(经营现金流/市值 -28.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 1.0%,稳定度 -329%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 58%,资本开支/折旧 0.40 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -48%,最大回撤 -57%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 51%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / -4% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「普钢」22 家中位:PE 24.6 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 3.5% / 固定资产占比 58% / 分红率 57%。", "*ST八钢:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点。"]}}