{"F": {"ts_code": "600578.SH", "name": "京能电力", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "电力", "sw3": "火力发电", "ind": "电力", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20020510", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.41, "pe_ttm": 10.249, "pb": 1.4523, "dv_ttm": 3.1423, "total_mv": 3621789.961, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.6, -8.0, 9.5, 9.8, 13.3, 21.3], "rev_series": [201.0, 222.4, 304.9, 328.8, 354.3, 354.3], "np_series": [14.0, -31.1, 8.0, 8.8, 17.2, 35.3], "roe_series": [5.7, -13.2, 3.5, 3.4, 6.1, 12.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 349.3, "np_ttm": 35.7, "ocf_ttm": 95.4, "fcf_ttm": 55.3, "fcf_yield": 15.3, "ocf_yield": 26.4, "gm_median": 9.8, "gm_std": 9.6, "gm_stab": 0.02, "gm_chg_2022": -8.1, "npm_median": 3.3, "roe_median": 3.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 64.5, "fix_assets": 643.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.3, "capex_dep": 1.1, "interest_debt": 465.9, "debt_ebitda": 4.9, "debt_ratio": 64.3, "debt_mv": 128.6, "payout": 52.2, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 5.1, "np_cagr3": 63.8, "rev_yoy": -3.5, "np_yoy": 0.2, "np_vol": 167.1, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 51.0, "earn_yield": 9.8, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 9.9, "fwd_pe2": 9.6, "fwd_g1": 3.0, "fwd_g2": 4.0, "peg": 2.48, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["电力", 45.0], ["售电业务", 45.0], ["热力", 5.0], ["售热业务", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 52.6, "ret_prev2_year": 25.9, "ret_ytd": 9.7, "ret_pivot": 89.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -9.5, "ret_60": -28.9, "ret_120": -1.5, "ret_250": 27.6, "mdd_250": -45.4, "vol_250": 56.4, "pos_52w": 56.8}, "S": {"duration": 23, "pricing": 9, "hard": 100, "bondness": 67}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 52%、股息率 3.1%、营收 3 年复合 5.1%、有息负债/EBITDA 4.9 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 64%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 9.8%,稳定度 2%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 15.3%(经营现金流/市值 26.4%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 9.8%,稳定度 2%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 64%,资本开支/折旧 1.10 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 10.2 倍 粗算,约 51%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 28%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 56%,现价在 52 周高点的 57%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / -29% / -2%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电力」109 家中位:PE 27.8 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 22.5% / 固定资产占比 61% / 分红率 42%。", "京能电力:PE 比行业中位低 17.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 12.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.8个百分点。"]}}