{"F": {"ts_code": "600575.SH", "name": "淮河能源", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "电力", "sw3": "火力发电", "ind": "电力", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20030328", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.29, "pe_ttm": 16.9381, "pb": 1.1141, "dv_ttm": 5.7751, "total_mv": 2357874.6338, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [8.3, 6.1, 6.9, 6.2, 6.1, 9.6], "rev_series": [129.2, 227.8, 253.6, 273.3, 300.2, 388.2], "np_series": [4.8, 4.4, 3.5, 8.4, 8.6, 17.0], "roe_series": [5.0, 4.5, 3.5, 8.0, 7.7, 10.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 440.3, "np_ttm": 17.8, "ocf_ttm": 53.4, "fcf_ttm": -49.9, "fcf_yield": -21.2, "ocf_yield": 22.7, "gm_median": 6.2, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.79, "gm_chg_2022": -1.3, "npm_median": 3.0, "roe_median": 7.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 57.7, "fix_assets": 307.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.7, "pb_calc": 1.11, "capex_dep": 4.56, "interest_debt": 206.3, "debt_ebitda": 3.9, "debt_ratio": 52.9, "debt_mv": 87.5, "payout": 94.1, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 15.3, "np_cagr3": 69.8, "rev_yoy": 9.1, "np_yoy": -36.6, "np_vol": 81.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 70.0, "earn_yield": 5.9, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 16.2, "fwd_pe2": 13.5, "fwd_g1": 5.0, "fwd_g2": 20.0, "peg": 0.81, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["物流贸易", 25.0], ["电力", 17.0], ["煤炭销售", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": -15.1, "ret_prev2_year": 80.0, "ret_ytd": 2.5, "ret_pivot": 5.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.4, "ret_60": -12.3, "ret_120": -12.3, "ret_250": -2.7, "mdd_250": -26.5, "vol_250": 30.0, "pos_52w": 78.5}, "S": {"duration": 35, "pricing": 37, "hard": 92, "bondness": 79}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 94%、股息率 5.8%、营收 3 年复合 15.3%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.9 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 58%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 6.2%,稳定度 79%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -21.2%(经营现金流/市值 22.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 6.2%,稳定度 79%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 58%,资本开支/折旧 4.56 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 16.9 倍 粗算,约 70%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -3%,最大回撤 -26%,年化波动 30%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -12% / -12%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电力」109 家中位:PE 27.8 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 22.5% / 固定资产占比 61% / 分红率 42%。", "淮河能源:PE 比行业中位低 10.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 4.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 16.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.0个百分点。"]}}