{"F": {"ts_code": "600573.SH", "name": "惠泉啤酒", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "非白酒", "sw3": "啤酒", "ind": "非白酒", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20030226", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.16, "pe_ttm": 28.4766, "pb": 1.8388, "dv_ttm": 0.9843, "total_mv": 254000.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.4, 26.9, 27.1, 29.5, 31.2, 34.9], "rev_series": [6.1, 5.8, 6.1, 6.1, 6.5, 6.4], "np_series": [0.3, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.8], "roe_series": [2.5, 2.7, 3.3, 3.9, 5.1, 6.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.6, "np_ttm": 0.9, "ocf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_yield": 1.9, "ocf_yield": 3.0, "gm_median": 29.5, "gm_std": 2.9, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": 1.7, "npm_median": 8.0, "roe_median": 3.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.7, "fix_assets": 2.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.84, "capex_dep": 1.29, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 20.8, "debt_mv": 0.4, "payout": 30.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 1.4, "np_cagr3": 26.1, "rev_yoy": 5.1, "np_yoy": 23.3, "np_vol": 8.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 82.0, "earn_yield": 3.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["啤酒销售", 49.0], ["啤酒", 49.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 6.8, "ret_prev2_year": 9.3, "ret_ytd": -14.1, "ret_pivot": 13.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.4, "ret_60": -23.1, "ret_120": -17.9, "ret_250": -18.2, "mdd_250": -37.7, "vol_250": 39.9, "pos_52w": 72.2}, "S": {"duration": 51, "pricing": 55, "hard": 22, "bondness": 36}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 28.5 倍、股息率 1.0%、毛利率近 5 年中位 29.5%、固定资产占比 14%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 14%,毛利率近 5 年中位 29.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.9%(经营现金流/市值 3.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.5%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 1.29 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 28.5 倍 粗算,约 82%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -18%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / -23% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「非白酒」16 家中位:PE 22.9 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 40.5% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 60%。", "惠泉啤酒:PE 比行业中位高 5.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 11.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 13.9个百分点。"]}}