{"F": {"ts_code": "600571.SH", "name": "信雅达", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "IT服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "IT服务Ⅲ", "ind": "IT服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20021101", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.03, "pe_ttm": 122.8879, "pb": 4.4344, "dv_ttm": 0.3898, "total_mv": 514349.0849, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [49.8, 44.6, 32.4, 29.3, 26.1, 20.9], "rev_series": [12.7, 15.4, 15.4, 21.3, 19.7, 20.6], "np_series": [1.1, 2.9, -1.5, 1.3, 0.7, 0.7], "roe_series": [11.6, 26.0, -13.0, 11.3, 6.0, 5.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 20.7, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_yield": -0.6, "ocf_yield": -0.4, "gm_median": 29.3, "gm_std": 8.0, "gm_stab": 0.73, "gm_chg_2022": -17.4, "npm_median": 4.0, "roe_median": 6.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 1.2, "fix_assets": 0.3, "goodwill_ratio": 1.0, "pb_calc": 4.43, "capex_dep": 1.34, "interest_debt": 1.0, "debt_ebitda": 10.3, "debt_ratio": 37.6, "debt_mv": 1.9, "payout": 31.3, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 10.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 2.0, "np_yoy": -47.4, "np_vol": 126.6, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["IT行业", 33.0], ["IT产品", 33.0], ["环保行业", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 27.0, "ret_prev2_year": -6.9, "ret_ytd": -30.4, "ret_pivot": 21.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.3, "ret_60": 8.3, "ret_120": -23.6, "ret_250": -46.1, "mdd_250": -53.5, "vol_250": 33.2, "pos_52w": 55.4}, "S": {"duration": 95, "pricing": 44, "hard": 2, "bondness": 38}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 122.9 倍,估值里约 96% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 1%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 1%,毛利率近 5 年中位 29.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.6%(经营现金流/市值 -0.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.3%,稳定度 73%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -17.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 1%,资本开支/折旧 1.34 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 122.9 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -46%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 33%,现价在 52 周高点的 55%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 8% / -24%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「IT服务Ⅱ」134 家中位:PE 84.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 28.1% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 35%。", "信雅达:PE 比行业中位高 38.9倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.4个百分点。"]}}