{"F": {"ts_code": "600570.SH", "name": "恒生电子", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "垂直应用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20031216", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 22.03, "pe_ttm": 33.8796, "pb": 4.2952, "dv_ttm": 0.9071, "total_mv": 4171706.3237, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [77.1, 73.0, 73.6, 74.8, 72.0, 71.1], "rev_series": [41.7, 55.0, 65.0, 72.8, 65.8, 57.8], "np_series": [13.2, 14.6, 10.9, 14.2, 10.4, 12.3], "roe_series": [29.3, 28.6, 17.4, 19.2, 12.5, 13.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 55.0, "np_ttm": 12.3, "ocf_ttm": 9.9, "fcf_ttm": 8.3, "fcf_yield": 2.0, "ocf_yield": 2.4, "gm_median": 73.0, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": -3.5, "npm_median": 19.8, "roe_median": 17.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.7, "fix_assets": 20.5, "goodwill_ratio": 4.1, "pb_calc": 4.3, "capex_dep": 1.43, "interest_debt": 4.7, "debt_ebitda": 0.5, "debt_ratio": 29.1, "debt_mv": 1.1, "payout": 34.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -3.8, "np_cagr3": 4.1, "rev_yoy": -11.6, "np_yoy": 0.1, "np_vol": 23.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 85.0, "earn_yield": 3.0, "consensus_n": 13, "fwd_pe": 30.1, "fwd_pe2": 25.7, "fwd_g1": 13.0, "fwd_g2": 17.0, "peg": 1.77, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["软件销售收入", 33.0], ["软件业收入", 33.0], ["科技园开发销售", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 8.2, "ret_prev2_year": -2.3, "ret_ytd": -26.4, "ret_pivot": 36.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.2, "ret_60": 4.8, "ret_120": -18.7, "ret_250": -43.3, "mdd_250": -47.8, "vol_250": 33.3, "pos_52w": 57.3}, "S": {"duration": 57, "pricing": 76, "hard": 22, "bondness": 39}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 33.9 倍、股息率 0.9%、毛利率近 5 年中位 73.0%、固定资产占比 14%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 73.0%),硬资产占比 14%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.0%(经营现金流/市值 2.4%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 73.0%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 1.43 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 33.9 倍 粗算,约 85%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -43%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 33%,现价在 52 周高点的 57%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / 5% / -19%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "恒生电子:PE 比行业中位低 48.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 24.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.9个百分点。"]}}