{"F": {"ts_code": "600563.SH", "name": "法拉电子", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "元件", "sw3": "被动元件", "ind": "元件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20021210", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 123.48, "pe_ttm": 23.0584, "pb": 4.5589, "dv_ttm": 1.8626, "total_mv": 2778300.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [44.1, 42.1, 38.3, 38.6, 33.4, 32.1], "rev_series": [18.9, 28.1, 38.4, 38.8, 47.7, 53.3], "np_series": [5.6, 8.3, 10.1, 10.2, 10.4, 11.9], "roe_series": [20.1, 26.2, 26.8, 23.3, 20.8, 21.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 55.9, "np_ttm": 12.0, "ocf_ttm": 12.4, "fcf_ttm": 6.9, "fcf_yield": 2.5, "ocf_yield": 4.5, "gm_median": 38.3, "gm_std": 3.7, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -5.8, "npm_median": 26.5, "roe_median": 23.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 24.7, "fix_assets": 21.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.56, "capex_dep": 2.29, "interest_debt": 0.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 29.0, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 43.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 11.6, "np_cagr3": 5.8, "rev_yoy": 10.6, "np_yoy": 2.2, "np_vol": 17.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 78.0, "earn_yield": 4.3, "consensus_n": 13, "fwd_pe": 20.6, "fwd_pe2": 17.5, "fwd_g1": 12.0, "fwd_g2": 18.0, "peg": 1.14, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["薄膜电容", 49.0], ["电容器", 49.0], ["其他业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": -10.4, "ret_prev2_year": 32.8, "ret_ytd": 20.3, "ret_pivot": 50.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -9.3, "ret_60": -16.5, "ret_120": 6.9, "ret_250": 6.7, "mdd_250": -36.2, "vol_250": 54.2, "pos_52w": 64.7}, "S": {"duration": 44, "pricing": 54, "hard": 40, "bondness": 35}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 23.1 倍、股息率 1.9%、毛利率近 5 年中位 38.3%、固定资产占比 25%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 38.3%),硬资产占比 25%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.5%(经营现金流/市值 4.5%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 38.3%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 25%,资本开支/折旧 2.29 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 23.1 倍 粗算,约 78%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 7%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -9% / -16% / 7%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「元件」67 家中位:PE 65.2 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 21.3% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 44%。", "法拉电子:PE 比行业中位低 42.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 17.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 11.2个百分点。"]}}