{"F": {"ts_code": "600561.SH", "name": "江西长运", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "铁路公路", "sw3": "公交", "ind": "铁路公路", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20020716", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.13, "pe_ttm": 107.8967, "pb": 1.8447, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 174384.2784, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [-8.9, -5.6, -17.1, -5.2, -5.7, -10.3], "rev_series": [18.3, 18.2, 14.5, 15.4, 15.6, 14.5], "np_series": [-3.1, 0.1, -1.5, -0.6, 0.1, 0.2], "roe_series": [-27.4, 1.0, -14.3, -6.1, 1.2, 1.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 13.5, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 3.3, "fcf_ttm": 1.9, "fcf_yield": 10.8, "ocf_yield": 18.8, "gm_median": -5.7, "gm_std": 4.5, "gm_stab": 1.8, "gm_chg_2022": -8.2, "npm_median": 0.6, "roe_median": 1.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 48.4, "fix_assets": 20.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 1.84, "capex_dep": 0.65, "interest_debt": 15.0, "debt_ebitda": 4.4, "debt_ratio": 72.6, "debt_mv": 86.0, "payout": null, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -0.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -15.9, "np_yoy": 2.3, "np_vol": 589.1, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 37.0], ["汽车客运业务", 20.0], ["汽车客运", 20.0], ["货物运输", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 20.7, "ret_prev2_year": -16.4, "ret_ytd": -5.4, "ret_pivot": 42.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 11.5, "ret_60": 10.3, "ret_120": -13.2, "ret_250": -13.7, "mdd_250": -39.1, "vol_250": 34.8, "pos_52w": 79.9}, "S": {"duration": 93, "pricing": 39, "hard": 77, "bondness": 33}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 108 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 73%,有息负债 15 亿,经营现金流/市值 18.8%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 48%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 -5.7%,稳定度 180%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 10.8%(经营现金流/市值 18.8%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 -5.7%,稳定度 180%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 48%,资本开支/折旧 0.65 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 107.9 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -14%,最大回撤 -39%,年化波动 35%,现价在 52 周高点的 80%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 12% / 10% / -13%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「铁路公路」33 家中位:PE 15.4 / 股息率 3.2% / 毛利率 32.2% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 48%。", "江西长运:PE 比行业中位高 92.5倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 37.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 27.4个百分点。"]}}