{"F": {"ts_code": "600560.SH", "name": "金自天正", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "能源及重型设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20020919", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.44, "pe_ttm": 53.6237, "pb": 2.5621, "dv_ttm": 0.6224, "total_mv": 255850.452, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.6, 24.3, 21.9, 19.2, 28.0, 23.9], "rev_series": [7.0, 7.1, 7.4, 9.5, 7.4, 7.9], "np_series": [0.4, 0.5, 0.4, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5], "roe_series": [4.8, 5.6, 5.2, 5.9, 5.7, 5.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.7, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": -0.9, "fcf_ttm": -1.0, "fcf_yield": -4.0, "ocf_yield": -3.6, "gm_median": 23.9, "gm_std": 2.9, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -3.7, "npm_median": 6.9, "roe_median": 5.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 5.3, "fix_assets": 1.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.56, "capex_dep": 0.95, "interest_debt": 2.4, "debt_ebitda": 5.1, "debt_ratio": 55.8, "debt_mv": 9.2, "payout": 30.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 2.5, "np_cagr3": 5.4, "rev_yoy": 38.0, "np_yoy": -18.0, "np_vol": 11.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 49.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 12.2, "ret_prev2_year": -0.6, "ret_ytd": -29.7, "ret_pivot": -4.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.3, "ret_60": -3.5, "ret_120": -28.2, "ret_250": -34.5, "mdd_250": -46.2, "vol_250": 28.8, "pos_52w": 62.6}, "S": {"duration": 74, "pricing": 47, "hard": 8, "bondness": 47}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 53.6 倍、股息率 0.6%、毛利率近 5 年中位 23.9%、固定资产占比 5%、有息负债/EBITDA 5.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 5%,毛利率近 5 年中位 23.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.0%(经营现金流/市值 -3.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.9%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 5%,资本开支/折旧 0.95 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 53.6 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -34%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 29%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / -4% / -28%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "金自天正:PE 比行业中位高 11.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 12.7个百分点。"]}}