{"F": {"ts_code": "600559.SH", "name": "老白干酒", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "白酒Ⅱ", "sw3": "白酒Ⅲ", "ind": "白酒Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20021029", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.69, "pe_ttm": 28.8595, "pb": 1.9637, "dv_ttm": 1.7109, "total_mv": 1069339.7106, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [64.7, 67.3, 68.4, 67.2, 65.9, 66.0], "rev_series": [36.0, 40.3, 46.5, 52.6, 53.6, 41.2], "np_series": [3.1, 3.9, 7.1, 6.7, 7.9, 4.3], "roe_series": [9.3, 10.8, 17.5, 14.5, 15.6, 8.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 37.4, "np_ttm": 3.7, "ocf_ttm": -0.6, "fcf_ttm": -1.4, "fcf_yield": -1.3, "ocf_yield": -0.5, "gm_median": 67.2, "gm_std": 0.9, "gm_stab": 0.99, "gm_chg_2022": 3.6, "npm_median": 12.7, "roe_median": 14.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 18.8, "fix_assets": 16.0, "goodwill_ratio": 7.1, "pb_calc": 1.96, "capex_dep": 0.54, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 36.0, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 61.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -4.0, "np_cagr3": -15.3, "rev_yoy": -15.2, "np_yoy": -18.5, "np_vol": 41.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 83.0, "earn_yield": 3.5, "consensus_n": 10, "fwd_pe": 23.7, "fwd_pe2": 20.9, "fwd_g1": 22.0, "fwd_g2": 13.0, "peg": 1.82, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["老白干酿酒业", 25.0], ["武陵事业部", 10.0], ["板城事业部", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": -21.7, "ret_prev2_year": -5.2, "ret_ytd": -26.2, "ret_pivot": -29.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.9, "ret_60": -2.1, "ret_120": -20.7, "ret_250": -35.8, "mdd_250": -40.1, "vol_250": 26.1, "pos_52w": 64.2}, "S": {"duration": 51, "pricing": 78, "hard": 30, "bondness": 55}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 28.9 倍、股息率 1.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 67.2%、固定资产占比 19%、资产负债率 36%:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 67.2%),硬资产占比 19%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.3%(经营现金流/市值 -0.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 67.2%,稳定度 99%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.6 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 0.54 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 28.9 倍 粗算,约 83%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -36%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 26%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -2% / -21%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「白酒Ⅱ」19 家中位:PE 26.1 / 股息率 3.7% / 毛利率 74.5% / 固定资产占比 27% / 分红率 60%。", "老白干酒:PE 比行业中位高 2.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 2.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 7.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.3个百分点。"]}}