{"F": {"ts_code": "600552.SH", "name": "凯盛科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "光学光电子", "sw3": "面板", "ind": "光学光电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20021108", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.62, "pe_ttm": 111.8481, "pb": 3.6266, "dv_ttm": 0.3008, "total_mv": 1569936.6678, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [15.0, 16.5, 17.1, 13.3, 17.0, 18.1], "rev_series": [50.7, 63.2, 46.2, 50.1, 48.9, 58.8], "np_series": [1.2, 1.6, 1.4, 1.1, 1.4, 1.3], "roe_series": [4.8, 6.1, 4.2, 2.6, 3.4, 3.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 62.3, "np_ttm": 1.4, "ocf_ttm": 3.8, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 0.3, "ocf_yield": 2.4, "gm_median": 17.0, "gm_std": 1.6, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": 2.1, "npm_median": 3.9, "roe_median": 3.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 40.8, "fix_assets": 53.2, "goodwill_ratio": 1.5, "pb_calc": 3.63, "capex_dep": 0.97, "interest_debt": 49.5, "debt_ebitda": 6.4, "debt_ratio": 63.2, "debt_mv": 31.5, "payout": 36.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 8.3, "np_cagr3": -2.8, "rev_yoy": 12.5, "np_yoy": 22.7, "np_vol": 27.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 80.4, "fwd_pe2": 54.2, "fwd_g1": 39.0, "fwd_g2": 48.0, "peg": 1.68, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["显示材料", 39.0], ["应用材料", 10.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 9.2, "ret_prev2_year": -14.2, "ret_ytd": 34.6, "ret_pivot": 60.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.7, "ret_60": -19.1, "ret_120": 23.8, "ret_250": 26.5, "mdd_250": -55.2, "vol_250": 61.6, "pos_52w": 51.0}, "S": {"duration": 94, "pricing": 49, "hard": 65, "bondness": 41}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 41%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 17.0%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.1 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 6.4 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 41%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 17.0%,稳定度 90%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.3%(经营现金流/市值 2.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.0%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 41%,资本开支/折旧 0.97 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 111.8 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 26%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 62%,现价在 52 周高点的 51%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -9% / -19% / 24%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光学光电子」95 家中位:PE 61.6 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 19.3% / 固定资产占比 31% / 分红率 43%。", "凯盛科技:PE 比行业中位高 50.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 9.4个百分点。"]}}