{"F": {"ts_code": "600551.SH", "name": "时代出版", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "出版", "sw3": "大众出版", "ind": "出版", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20020905", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.05, "pe_ttm": 13.554, "pb": 0.9111, "dv_ttm": 3.7267, "total_mv": 545834.436, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [12.0, 10.5, 11.5, 10.3, 10.1, 12.2], "rev_series": [64.5, 78.9, 76.5, 86.4, 83.3, 66.6], "np_series": [2.7, 3.6, 3.4, 5.6, 4.0, 4.1], "roe_series": [5.7, 7.4, 6.7, 10.1, 7.0, 7.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 58.6, "np_ttm": 4.0, "ocf_ttm": 7.1, "fcf_ttm": 6.7, "fcf_yield": 12.2, "ocf_yield": 13.0, "gm_median": 10.5, "gm_std": 0.8, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -0.5, "npm_median": 4.9, "roe_median": 7.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.1, "fix_assets": 5.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.91, "capex_dep": 0.76, "interest_debt": 1.8, "debt_ebitda": 0.5, "debt_ratio": 30.7, "debt_mv": 3.2, "payout": 49.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -4.5, "np_cagr3": 6.0, "rev_yoy": -21.5, "np_yoy": -3.4, "np_vol": 31.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 63.0, "earn_yield": 7.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 32.0], ["物资销售分部", 23.0], ["印刷物资", 23.0], ["新闻出版", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": -1.1, "ret_prev2_year": 19.2, "ret_ytd": 1.6, "ret_pivot": 10.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 17.3, "ret_60": 13.2, "ret_120": -2.3, "ret_250": -10.4, "mdd_250": -30.7, "vol_250": 31.4, "pos_52w": 84.8}, "S": {"duration": 29, "pricing": 45, "hard": 10, "bondness": 61}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 50%、股息率 3.7%、营收 3 年复合 -4.5%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.5 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 6%,毛利率近 5 年中位 10.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 12.2%(经营现金流/市值 13.0%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 10.5%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 0.76 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 13.6 倍 粗算,约 63%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -10%,最大回撤 -31%,年化波动 31%,现价在 52 周高点的 85%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 17% / 13% / -2%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「出版」29 家中位:PE 32.6 / 股息率 2.2% / 毛利率 34.7% / 固定资产占比 10% / 分红率 50%。", "时代出版:PE 比行业中位低 19.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 24.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.6个百分点。"]}}