{"F": {"ts_code": "600550.SH", "name": "保变电气", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "输变电设备", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20010228", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.1, "pe_ttm": 80.0648, "pb": 20.8424, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 2044096.635, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [18.4, 17.7, 20.0, 13.8, 16.2, 15.3], "rev_series": [40.8, 41.4, 34.5, 34.6, 47.4, 57.1], "np_series": [0.2, 0.4, 0.3, -2.1, 1.0, 2.0], "roe_series": [3.4, 6.6, 4.1, -33.2, 17.4, 27.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 65.6, "np_ttm": 2.6, "ocf_ttm": 4.5, "fcf_ttm": 3.3, "fcf_yield": 1.6, "ocf_yield": 2.2, "gm_median": 16.2, "gm_std": 2.1, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": 1.6, "npm_median": 1.4, "roe_median": 6.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 10.5, "fix_assets": 8.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 20.84, "capex_dep": 1.33, "interest_debt": 22.8, "debt_ebitda": 5.5, "debt_ratio": 86.6, "debt_mv": 11.2, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 18.3, "np_cagr3": 88.3, "rev_yoy": 28.4, "np_yoy": 77.3, "np_vol": 356.6, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["输变电产品", 99.0], ["材料销售", 1.0], ["其他主营业务", 0.0], ["其他", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 34.4, "ret_prev2_year": 60.9, "ret_ytd": 5.2, "ret_pivot": -9.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.0, "ret_60": -6.4, "ret_120": -35.2, "ret_250": 23.5, "mdd_250": -47.5, "vol_250": 54.2, "pos_52w": 58.3}, "S": {"duration": 86, "pricing": 47, "hard": 17, "bondness": 17}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 80.1 倍,估值里约 94% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 10%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 10%,毛利率近 5 年中位 16.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.6%(经营现金流/市值 2.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.2%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 1.33 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 80.1 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 24%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / -6% / -35%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "保变电气:PE 比行业中位高 36.6倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 7.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.4个百分点。"]}}