{"F": {"ts_code": "600548.SH", "name": "深高速", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "铁路公路", "sw3": "高速公路", "ind": "铁路公路", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20011225", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.47, "pe_ttm": 19.395, "pb": 0.9338, "dv_ttm": 2.8808, "total_mv": 2149564.1167, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [35.0, 34.9, 32.2, 36.0, 31.6, 30.3], "rev_series": [80.3, 108.7, 93.7, 93.0, 92.5, 92.6], "np_series": [20.5, 26.1, 20.1, 23.3, 11.5, 11.5], "roe_series": [9.9, 10.9, 8.8, 10.6, 5.2, 4.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 90.0, "np_ttm": 11.1, "ocf_ttm": 47.1, "fcf_ttm": 26.0, "fcf_yield": 12.1, "ocf_yield": 21.9, "gm_median": 32.2, "gm_std": 2.1, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -2.8, "npm_median": 20.8, "roe_median": 8.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.7, "fix_assets": 68.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.8, "capex_dep": 3.79, "interest_debt": 314.5, "debt_ebitda": 7.1, "debt_ratio": 54.6, "debt_mv": 146.3, "payout": 56.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -0.4, "np_cagr3": -17.1, "rev_yoy": -6.8, "np_yoy": -4.3, "np_vol": 27.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 74.0, "earn_yield": 5.2, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 14.4, "fwd_pe2": 14.1, "fwd_g1": 35.0, "fwd_g2": 2.0, "peg": 7.2, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 31.0], ["通行费收入", 19.0], ["通行费", 19.0], ["大环保", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": -34.1, "ret_prev2_year": 63.4, "ret_ytd": -1.0, "ret_pivot": -4.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.4, "ret_60": 2.2, "ret_120": -4.4, "ret_250": -19.1, "mdd_250": -24.0, "vol_250": 17.9, "pos_52w": 81.6}, "S": {"duration": 38, "pricing": 54, "hard": 16, "bondness": 72}, "label": "债券代理股", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["现金流像票息:近 5 年净利润增速波动 28个百分点,营收 3 年复合 -0.4%,利润在窄区间里波动。", "分红率 56%、股息率 2.9%,每年派多少钱几乎可以预测。", "杠杆:有息负债 314 亿,有息负债/EBITDA 7.1 倍,资产负债率 55%。利率升财务费用直接吃利润。", "定价方式是利差:市场看的是股息率 2.9% 比十年期国债高多少。PE 19.4 倍 倒过来就是 5.2% 的盈利收益率,这是债的定价。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 32.2%),硬资产占比 10%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。 另外它被市场当长债替代品交易:利率上行时跟长债一起跌,不跟硬资产一起涨,这个标签贴错会亏钱。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期跟长债走,承压;国内降息周期反而受益。拿它盯国内十年期国债收益率,不要盯黄金和美元。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 12.1%(经营现金流/市值 21.9%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 32.2%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 3.79 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 19.4 倍 粗算,约 74%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -19%,最大回撤 -24%,年化波动 18%,现价在 52 周高点的 82%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 2% / -4%。 债券代理股的波动应该低;符合。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「铁路公路」33 家中位:PE 15.4 / 股息率 3.2% / 毛利率 32.2% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 48%。", "深高速:PE 比行业中位高 4.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 与行业中位持平;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 11.3个百分点。"]}}