{"F": {"ts_code": "600547.SH", "name": "山东黄金", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "贵金属", "sw3": "黄金", "ind": "贵金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20030828", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": true, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 37.9, "pe_ttm": 31.9155, "pb": 5.2734, "dv_ttm": 1.1997, "total_mv": 17471632.805, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [12.3, 10.6, 14.1, 16.6, 16.5, 20.5], "rev_series": [636.6, 339.3, 503.1, 592.8, 825.2, 1042.9], "np_series": [22.6, -1.9, 12.5, 23.3, 29.5, 47.4], "roe_series": [8.7, -0.7, 4.0, 7.1, 8.3, 11.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1011.1, "np_ttm": 54.7, "ocf_ttm": 187.6, "fcf_ttm": 56.2, "fcf_yield": 3.2, "ocf_yield": 10.7, "gm_median": 16.5, "gm_std": 3.3, "gm_stab": 0.8, "gm_chg_2022": 1.8, "npm_median": 4.9, "roe_median": 7.1, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 37.8, "fix_assets": 671.2, "goodwill_ratio": 7.1, "pb_calc": 3.71, "capex_dep": 2.41, "interest_debt": 672.9, "debt_ebitda": 2.8, "debt_ratio": 61.9, "debt_mv": 38.5, "payout": 40.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 27.5, "np_cagr3": 56.1, "rev_yoy": -5.6, "np_yoy": 26.2, "np_vol": 298.6, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 84.0, "earn_yield": 3.1, "consensus_n": 15, "fwd_pe": 19.0, "fwd_pe2": 14.9, "fwd_g1": 68.0, "fwd_g2": 27.0, "peg": 0.7, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["黄金", 14.0], ["自产金", 14.0], ["外购金收入", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 74.5, "ret_prev2_year": -0.1, "ret_ytd": -1.4, "ret_pivot": 45.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 24.8, "ret_60": 42.1, "ret_120": -18.0, "ret_250": 20.3, "mdd_250": -62.3, "vol_250": 54.3, "pos_52w": 62.8}, "S": {"duration": 55, "pricing": 70, "hard": 60, "bondness": 30}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["成长兑现", "商品定价", "资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 671 亿,占总资产 38%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:黄金 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 3.2%,股息率 1.2%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 84%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 38%)和定价权(商品价格)。 注意:金矿股不等于黄金,有运营杠杆和自身成本通胀,对冲美元信用直接买黄金 ETF 更纯。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.2%(经营现金流/市值 10.7%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.5%,稳定度 80%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 2.41 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 31.9 倍 粗算,约 84%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 20%,最大回撤 -62%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 25% / 42% / -18%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「贵金属」11 家中位:PE 30.8 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 13.3% / 固定资产占比 27% / 分红率 32%。", "山东黄金:PE 比行业中位高 1.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 11.1个百分点。"]}}