{"F": {"ts_code": "600546.SH", "name": "山煤国际", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "煤炭", "sw2": "煤炭开采", "sw3": "动力煤", "ind": "煤炭开采", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20030731", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.17, "pe_ttm": 17.166, "pb": 1.5062, "dv_ttm": 2.6955, "total_mv": 2610894.6837, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.0, 37.9, 44.8, 39.1, 32.3, 35.6], "rev_series": [354.2, 480.5, 463.9, 373.7, 295.6, 204.7], "np_series": [8.3, 49.4, 69.8, 42.6, 22.7, 11.7], "roe_series": [9.4, 47.3, 52.0, 27.8, 14.1, 7.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 223.1, "np_ttm": 15.2, "ocf_ttm": 63.9, "fcf_ttm": 51.5, "fcf_yield": 19.7, "ocf_yield": 24.5, "gm_median": 37.9, "gm_std": 4.1, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": 24.9, "npm_median": 16.3, "roe_median": 27.8, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 51.5, "fix_assets": 210.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.51, "capex_dep": 1.12, "interest_debt": 65.2, "debt_ebitda": 1.1, "debt_ratio": 49.2, "debt_mv": 25.0, "payout": 60.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -23.9, "np_cagr3": -44.9, "rev_yoy": 21.6, "np_yoy": 54.1, "np_vol": 210.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 71.0, "earn_yield": 5.8, "consensus_n": 11, "fwd_pe": 11.5, "fwd_pe2": 10.4, "fwd_g1": 49.0, "fwd_g2": 11.0, "peg": 1.05, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": -9.7, "ret_prev2_year": -31.8, "ret_ytd": 35.3, "ret_pivot": 26.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.2, "ret_60": 3.9, "ret_120": 9.4, "ret_250": 31.4, "mdd_250": -29.1, "vol_250": 41.7, "pos_52w": 88.3}, "S": {"duration": 35, "pricing": 70, "hard": 82, "bondness": 61}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["成长兑现", "商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 211 亿,占总资产 52%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:动力煤 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 19.7%,股息率 2.7%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 71%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 52%)和定价权(商品价格)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 19.7%(经营现金流/市值 24.5%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 37.9%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 24.9 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 52%,资本开支/折旧 1.12 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 17.2 倍 粗算,约 71%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 31%,最大回撤 -29%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 88%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 4% / 9%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「煤炭开采」26 家中位:PE 25.7 / 股息率 1.9% / 毛利率 34.5% / 固定资产占比 50% / 分红率 51%。", "山煤国际:PE 比行业中位低 8.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.0个百分点。"]}}