{"F": {"ts_code": "600543.SH", "name": "*ST莫高", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "非白酒", "sw3": "其他酒类", "ind": "非白酒", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20040324", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.32, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.0588, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 138723.84, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [48.7, 24.0, 14.5, 31.7, 14.5, 10.9], "rev_series": [1.3, 1.4, 1.1, 2.0, 3.3, 2.0], "np_series": [0.0, -1.0, -1.1, -0.4, -0.5, -1.1], "roe_series": [0.2, -8.8, -10.9, -4.5, -6.2, -14.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2.6, "np_ttm": -1.0, "ocf_ttm": -0.8, "fcf_ttm": -1.0, "fcf_yield": -7.3, "ocf_yield": -5.9, "gm_median": 14.5, "gm_std": 7.7, "gm_stab": 0.47, "gm_chg_2022": -34.3, "npm_median": -54.1, "roe_median": -8.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 48.1, "fix_assets": 4.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.06, "capex_dep": 0.49, "interest_debt": 1.9, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 32.1, "debt_mv": 13.5, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 23.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 45.8, "np_yoy": 10.3, "np_vol": 2155.4, "loss_years": 5, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["膜袋", 25.0], ["农膜", 25.0], ["农业种植及加工", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 14.4, "ret_prev2_year": -23.2, "ret_ytd": -18.6, "ret_pivot": -31.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 12.5, "ret_60": 3.3, "ret_120": -18.6, "ret_250": -32.6, "mdd_250": -49.0, "vol_250": 34.0, "pos_52w": 64.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 27, "hard": 77, "bondness": 3}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 48%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 14.5%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -34.3 个百分点;资产负债率 32%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 48%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 14.5%,稳定度 47%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -7.3%(经营现金流/市值 -5.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.5%,稳定度 47%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -34.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 48%,资本开支/折旧 0.49 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -33%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 34%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 12% / 3% / -19%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「非白酒」16 家中位:PE 22.9 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 40.5% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 60%。", "*ST莫高:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 26.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 20.5个百分点。"]}}