{"F": {"ts_code": "600538.SH", "name": "国发股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "医药商业", "sw3": "医药流通", "ind": "医药商业", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20030114", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.17, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 4.0064, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 271010.5211, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.1, 25.8, 27.9, 24.8, 25.6, 22.5], "rev_series": [2.7, 4.2, 4.6, 3.7, 3.4, 3.3], "np_series": [0.0, 0.1, 0.3, -0.8, -0.9, -0.9], "roe_series": [0.4, 1.2, 3.7, -9.0, -11.4, -12.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.3, "np_ttm": -0.9, "ocf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_yield": -1.1, "ocf_yield": -0.8, "gm_median": 25.6, "gm_std": 1.7, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": 2.8, "npm_median": -22.0, "roe_median": -9.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 11.0, "fix_assets": 1.0, "goodwill_ratio": 8.7, "pb_calc": 4.01, "capex_dep": 0.52, "interest_debt": 0.7, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 21.4, "debt_mv": 2.6, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -10.6, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 3.8, "np_yoy": -93.8, "np_vol": 208.1, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["医药流通", 50.0], ["DNA检测设备及耗材", 19.0], ["DNA检测设备、耗材及检测服务", 19.0], ["医药制造", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 18.6, "ret_prev2_year": 11.2, "ret_ytd": -15.5, "ret_pivot": 65.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.8, "ret_60": -12.5, "ret_120": -15.4, "ret_250": -22.8, "mdd_250": -41.8, "vol_250": 38.6, "pos_52w": 69.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 55, "hard": 18, "bondness": 23}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.9 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 21%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 -0.8%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 11%,毛利率近 5 年中位 25.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.1%(经营现金流/市值 -0.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.6%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 0.52 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -23%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -12% / -15%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「医药商业」32 家中位:PE 22.5 / 股息率 2.8% / 毛利率 13.4% / 固定资产占比 7% / 分红率 38%。", "国发股份:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 12.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.8个百分点。"]}}