{"F": {"ts_code": "600536.SH", "name": "中国软件", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "IT服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "IT服务Ⅲ", "ind": "IT服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20020517", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 33.5, "pe_ttm": 1510.4081, "pb": 8.7175, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 3128185.11, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.9, 29.8, 31.4, 36.9, 37.4, 42.4], "rev_series": [74.1, 103.5, 96.4, 67.2, 52.0, 51.0], "np_series": [0.7, 0.8, 0.5, -2.3, -4.1, -0.4], "roe_series": [3.0, 3.2, 1.8, -9.8, -18.9, -1.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 46.5, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 6.6, "fcf_ttm": 2.5, "fcf_yield": 0.8, "ocf_yield": 2.1, "gm_median": 36.9, "gm_std": 4.5, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": 0.5, "npm_median": 2.0, "roe_median": -1.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 2.6, "fix_assets": 2.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 8.72, "capex_dep": 7.9, "interest_debt": 13.8, "debt_ebitda": 2.7, "debt_ratio": 40.8, "debt_mv": 4.4, "payout": null, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -19.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -20.1, "np_yoy": 83.4, "np_vol": 247.4, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100.0, "earn_yield": 0.1, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 558.3, "fwd_pe2": 304.5, "fwd_g1": 171.0, "fwd_g2": 83.0, "peg": 6.73, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 49.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -0.8, "ret_prev2_year": 28.8, "ret_ytd": -27.6, "ret_pivot": -3.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.1, "ret_60": 1.1, "ret_120": -18.3, "ret_250": -38.6, "mdd_250": -51.4, "vol_250": 41.2, "pos_52w": 60.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 57, "hard": 4, "bondness": 28}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 1510 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 41%,有息负债 14 亿,经营现金流/市值 2.1%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 36.9%),硬资产占比 3%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.8%(经营现金流/市值 2.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 36.9%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.5 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 3%,资本开支/折旧 7.90 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 1510.4 倍 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -39%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 1% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「IT服务Ⅱ」134 家中位:PE 84.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 28.1% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 35%。", "中国软件:PE 比行业中位高 1426.4倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 8.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.0个百分点。"]}}