{"F": {"ts_code": "600531.SH", "name": "豫光金铅", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "工业金属", "sw3": "铅锌", "ind": "工业金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20020730", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.08, "pe_ttm": 17.184, "pb": 2.236, "dv_ttm": 1.6437, "total_mv": 1581715.6116, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [5.0, 4.1, 2.4, 4.7, 5.9, 5.1], "rev_series": [202.4, 268.9, 271.1, 321.5, 393.4, 495.5], "np_series": [3.1, 4.0, 4.2, 5.8, 8.1, 8.6], "roe_series": [8.7, 10.2, 10.1, 12.7, 15.6, 14.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 613.9, "np_ttm": 9.2, "ocf_ttm": -11.3, "fcf_ttm": -15.8, "fcf_yield": -10.0, "ocf_yield": -7.2, "gm_median": 4.7, "gm_std": 1.2, "gm_stab": 0.75, "gm_chg_2022": -2.6, "npm_median": 1.7, "roe_median": 12.7, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 17.3, "fix_assets": 43.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.24, "capex_dep": 1.42, "interest_debt": 135.6, "debt_ebitda": 6.6, "debt_ratio": 71.8, "debt_mv": 85.7, "payout": 30.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 22.3, "np_cagr3": 26.5, "rev_yoy": 52.7, "np_yoy": 12.5, "np_vol": 14.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 71.0, "earn_yield": 5.8, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 18.4, "fwd_pe2": 17.4, "fwd_g1": -7.0, "fwd_g2": 6.0, "peg": 3.07, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["银产品", 20.0], ["铜产品", 10.0], ["金产品", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 92.9, "ret_prev2_year": 9.7, "ret_ytd": 13.4, "ret_pivot": 142.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.7, "ret_60": 11.9, "ret_120": -13.9, "ret_250": 49.4, "mdd_250": -55.8, "vol_250": 68.7, "pos_52w": 53.2}, "S": {"duration": 35, "pricing": 70, "hard": 28, "bondness": 35}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 17.2 倍、股息率 1.6%、毛利率近 5 年中位 4.7%、固定资产占比 17%、有息负债/EBITDA 6.6 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 4.7%),硬资产占比 17%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -10.0%(经营现金流/市值 -7.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 4.7%,稳定度 75%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 17%,资本开支/折旧 1.42 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 17.2 倍 粗算,约 71%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 49%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 69%,现价在 52 周高点的 53%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / 12% / -14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工业金属」60 家中位:PE 20.5 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 10.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "豫光金铅:PE 比行业中位低 3.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 10.2个百分点。"]}}