{"F": {"ts_code": "600525.SH", "name": "长园集团", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "输变电设备", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20021202", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.1, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.3742, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 672577.902, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [41.4, 36.7, 35.2, 36.1, 30.5, 30.4], "rev_series": [61.9, 60.6, 76.1, 84.9, 78.7, 79.0], "np_series": [1.3, -10.3, 6.7, 1.1, -9.8, -11.4], "roe_series": [3.0, -26.8, 16.7, 2.2, -22.0, -34.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 82.4, "np_ttm": -7.6, "ocf_ttm": 11.5, "fcf_ttm": 10.5, "fcf_yield": 15.6, "ocf_yield": 17.1, "gm_median": 35.2, "gm_std": 2.8, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -6.2, "npm_median": -13.3, "roe_median": -22.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 7.2, "fix_assets": 9.6, "goodwill_ratio": 3.9, "pb_calc": 2.37, "capex_dep": 0.78, "interest_debt": 32.1, "debt_ebitda": 10.5, "debt_ratio": 75.9, "debt_mv": 47.8, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 1.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 10.0, "np_yoy": 110.7, "np_vol": 477.5, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["电力能源板块", 33.0], ["智能装备板块", 16.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": -27.7, "ret_prev2_year": -8.8, "ret_ytd": 44.5, "ret_pivot": 14.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.2, "ret_60": 4.9, "ret_120": -9.1, "ret_250": 53.6, "mdd_250": -25.0, "vol_250": 39.5, "pos_52w": 85.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 54, "hard": 12, "bondness": 34}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -7.6 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 76%,有息负债 32 亿,经营现金流/市值 17.1%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 35.2%),硬资产占比 7%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 15.6%(经营现金流/市值 17.1%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 35.2%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 7%,资本开支/折旧 0.78 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 54%,最大回撤 -25%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 85%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / 5% / -9%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "长园集团:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 11.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.7个百分点。"]}}