{"F": {"ts_code": "600522.SH", "name": "中天科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "通信", "sw2": "通信设备", "sw3": "通信线缆及配套", "ind": "通信设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20021024", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 31.7, "pe_ttm": 29.0674, "pb": 2.8142, "dv_ttm": 0.8193, "total_mv": 10819050.549, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.9, 16.0, 18.3, 16.2, 14.4, 13.9], "rev_series": [420.8, 461.6, 402.7, 450.7, 480.5, 525.0], "np_series": [22.7, 1.7, 32.1, 31.2, 28.4, 29.0], "roe_series": [10.2, 0.7, 11.3, 9.9, 8.3, 8.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 598.4, "np_ttm": 37.2, "ocf_ttm": 67.6, "fcf_ttm": 47.6, "fcf_yield": 4.4, "ocf_yield": 6.2, "gm_median": 16.0, "gm_std": 1.6, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": 4.4, "npm_median": 5.9, "roe_median": 8.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 16.9, "fix_assets": 112.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 2.81, "capex_dep": 1.5, "interest_debt": 32.8, "debt_ebitda": 0.6, "debt_ratio": 40.8, "debt_mv": 3.0, "payout": 30.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 9.2, "np_cagr3": -3.3, "rev_yoy": 31.1, "np_yoy": 52.3, "np_vol": 676.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 83.0, "earn_yield": 3.4, "consensus_n": 9, "fwd_pe": 16.5, "fwd_pe2": 13.1, "fwd_g1": 76.0, "fwd_g2": 26.0, "peg": 0.63, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 49.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 29.8, "ret_prev2_year": 17.5, "ret_ytd": 77.5, "ret_pivot": 158.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.9, "ret_60": -35.3, "ret_120": 7.5, "ret_250": 103.3, "mdd_250": -59.2, "vol_250": 65.7, "pos_52w": 46.7}, "S": {"duration": 52, "pricing": 50, "hard": 27, "bondness": 28}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 52%,PE TTM 29.1 倍 但前瞻 PE 16.5 倍,PEG 0.63。", "自由现金流 47.6 亿(正),次年预期增速 26%(9 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 17%,毛利率近 5 年中位 16.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.4%(经营现金流/市值 6.2%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.0%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 4.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 17%,资本开支/折旧 1.50 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 29.1 倍 粗算,约 83%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 103%,最大回撤 -59%,年化波动 66%,现价在 52 周高点的 47%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / -35% / 8%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通信设备」89 家中位:PE 84.6 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 29.1% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 41%。", "中天科技:PE 比行业中位低 55.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 13.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.7个百分点。"]}}